Ferrer Beats Ferrero in Acapulco

Juan Carlos Ferrero is a contemporary of Roger Federer.  He won his only Slam in 2002 at the French Open, and his best years were from 2000 to 2003, especially at the French where he reached the semis twice, the finals, then won the French.

In 2003, Ferrero reached the finals of the US Open losing to Andy Roddick.  Since 2004, Ferrero has only reached the quarterfinals twice and the semis once.  He’s lost in the first or second round 11 times since 2004.  Ferrero’s decline has been pretty drastic compared to Hewitt and Safin his other comtemporaries.

At 30, however, Ferrero seems to be playing some of his best tennis in recent memory.  He won Brazil two weeks ago, then Buenos Aires last week, and reached Acapulco this year.

This is the second week in a row that he meets David Ferrer in the finals.  Last week, Ferrero beat Ferrer in three sets.

This week, the younger David Ferrer won the match, taking the match 6-3, 3-6, 6-1.  Ferrero had just turned 30 a few weeks ago.

In Delray Beach, two semifinals were played yesterday.  Ernests Gulbis may be finally (finally!) reaching his talent.  Gulbis reached his first final by beating Finnish veteran, Jarkko Nieminen, 6-4, 6-4.  Mardy Fish reached the finals of Delray Beach, but due to injury and Ivo Karlovic’s big serve, and surprisingly, his topspin backhand, he took it to Mardy Fish, winning 6-2, 6-3.  People forget that Karlovic has a pretty big backhand, and can put pressure on your game.  Only players like Nadal or Federer or other top 10 players have such superior ground game that Karlovic finds it hard to be competitive in their games.  Fish, on the other hand, found himself making too many errors, while running into an in-form Karlovic.

Karlovic will face Gulbis in the finals of Delray Beach.

Djokovic was on the verge of defending his title in Dubai, apparently, the first time Djokovic would have defended any title.  He was up 7-5, 2-0, when something unusual happened in Dubai.  It rained.  And rained.  When play resumed Sunday, Djokovic went up 3-0, but then Youzhny fought back to tie it 3-all.  Djokovic would eventually lose the second set, 7-5.

In the third set, Djokovic also got to a 3-0 lead, but again gave up 3 games in a row to Youzhny before closing out the third set 6-3.  Djokovic attributed part of the struggle to the difference in court speed from daytime to nighttime saying the daytime conditions were much faster than the evening.  Lately, these swings in Djokovic’s game seem typical, where he plays poorly for stretches at a time, then elevates his game for other stretches.

After Delray Beach concludes, there are no tournaments until Indian Wells on March 10.  Indian Wells is the first Masters 1000 event of the year.  The field is expected to mark the return of Roger Federer, who had been suffering from lung infection, Rafael Nadal, who had injured his knee in Australia, and potentially Juan Martin del Potro, who injured his wrist and was letting it heal.

In the first few days of March, there’s Davis Cup.  The U.S. will have another challenge playing Serbia on clay.  John Isner and Sam Querrey are named to the team.  With Djokovic playing for Serbia, US has to hope to win two singles and the doubles.  While both Querrey and Isner have improved, and Querrey isn’t too bad on clay, Djokovic would be a handful on any surface.  Indeed, Djokovic had opted to play Rotterdam and Dubai on hard courts, rather than make the South/Central American tour on clay.  However, Djokovic is at least equally adept on clay, and the surface may be better for fellow Serbs, Victor Troicki and Janko Tipsarevic.

Djokovic Returns to Dubai Final

Two months ago, you’d be hard-pressed to say Novak Djokovic was going to defend his title in Dubai.  Players like Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Nikolay Davydenko were expected to play.  Indeed, if you were to preview Djokovic’s form playing Dubai, you might wonder if he could defend.

But luck has a way of changing things.  Roger Federer had a lung infection and withdrew.  Nadal was not ready to return back to the tour.  Davydenko’s wrist bothered him.  Andy Murray spent ten days pouting and then showed up at Dubai, not entirely sure he wanted to be there, and lost to Janko Tipsarevic, in a match he deemed as practicing a few things.

But with two players left standing, Novak Djokovic is in the finals again.  Djokovic is such an unpredictable player.  Once someone that was solidly entrenched at number 3, Djokovic plays the smaller tournaments well.  Djokovic doesn’t have a particular huge game, but he’s quick, consistent, and accurate.  He has just enough power to avoid getting attacked most of the times.

In the semifinals, he played yet another three setter, this time with Cypriot, Marcos Baghdatis.  Baghdatis took the first set in a tiebreak with Djokovic struggling with his serve, having to save break point after break point.  Djokovic took the second set 6-3, then the third 6-4.

He’ll face Mikhail Youzhny who has been having a few good months lately including being a finalist in Rotterdam.  Youzhny beat veteran Jurgen Melzer, 7-5, 7-6(4).

In Acapulco, Juan Carlos Ferrero has reached yet another final, his third in three consecutive tournaments.  Juan Monaco retired after a set with in injury to his side.  He’ll face the winner of Fernando Gonzalez and David Ferrer.  Ferrer reached the finals of Buenos Aires last week.

In Delray Beach, Gulbis, Nieminen, and Karlovic have reached the semis.  Gulbis is having another good week.  Mardy Fish is playing Jeremy Chardy for the last semifinal spot.

Tennis’s Dirty Secret

If you’re in the United States, you’re used to team sports.  It’s so common in the US so important to Americans,  that many in the US view sports with a team sports lens.  There are other sports which lack a regular season/postseason structure.  For those Americans that don’t like sports–and there are plenty, or for non-Americans who don’t follow American sports, the concept works something like this.

Usually, a team sport consists of some number of teams.  Baseball appears to have 30 teams.  American football has 32 teams.  NHL has 30 teams as well.  Often, half the teams are in one league/conference and the other half are in the other league/conference.  For example, American football has two conferences: NFC and AFC.  Within each conference, they further subdivide into about 4 divisions.

For example, the Washington Redskins is an American football team that is in the NFC conference, specifically, the NFC East division.  There are four teams in that division: the Washington Redskins, the New York Giants, the Dallas Cowboys, and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Each American football team plays 16 games.  They play each team in their division twice, once at the opponent’s field and once in their home (that’s games), then mostly play teams in their conference.

The goal is to qualify for the playoffs.  Out of 32 teams, only 12 teams make the playoffs.  This is based on an arcane formula.  Basically, each division (there are 8 total) has a division winner.  There are 8 teams that get into the playoffs by being division winners.  Each conference has 2 wildcards, which is roughly based on the teams with the best records that didn’t win their divisions.

The top two teams in each conference get a bye the first week.  So the other four teams play in the first week to eliminate to two.  Those two play the top two seeds in the conferences and eliminate to two teams.  Those two teams eliminate to one.  The winner of one conference plays the winner of the other conference in the Super Bowl.

In a nutshell, the goal is for the team to qualify for the playoffs which is single elimination, then win the Super Bowl.

Teams don’t get a choice whether to play a game or not.  They are told a schedule.  They are told who to play.  In baseball, weather might affect whether a game gets played, in which case, the game may be postponed and made up later on.

This past year, an unusual situation came up.  The Indianapolis Colts, an American football team, won 13 games in a row.  The coach, the guy who makes the decisions, said the Colts were not going to try to win the next 3 games in a row.  A team continues to try to win because they can be one of the top 2 seeds in a conference where they can get a bye.  Once that is guaranteed, they can continue to play for history (becoming the third team to be undefeated in NFL history, or they can rest their players.

The NFL is a brutal game and many players get injured.  It’s part of how the game is played.  The ultimate goal is to win the Super Bowl.  The Indianapolis Colts took a risk.  Although they won their 13th game, in the 14th game, they had the starters play part of the game and get a lead.  Then, they let backup players play the rest of the game.  They lost.  They also lost the last game.  They ended the season 14-2.

Many criticized this move saying that fans were deprived of two things: a team that was trying hard to win every game and an undefeated season.  The coach argued that losing those games were worth it because players would be rested for the Super Bowl.  The Colts did reach the Super Bowl but lost to the New Orleans Saints.

In tennis, by contrast, players can decide, up to an extent, how many tournaments to play.  They are requested to play at least 18 tournaments.  These tournaments should include the 4 Slams, 9 Masters 1000 events, the year-end ATP World Tour Finals (if they qualify) and some ATP 500 events to round it out.

Only a handful of players are good enough to be favored in Slams.  Usually, the top 5 or the top 10.  Some players understand this very well.  Pete Sampras won zero tournaments in 2001.  Now, this is a bit deceptive, because he reached four finals that year.   But he lost early in small tournaments and only played one tournament after the US Open.  Sampras only won one tournament in 2002, which was the US Open, his final tournament and final Slam.

Perhaps a better example is Serena Williams.  Serena doesn’t generally dominate tournaments except when it comes to Slams.  Serena gets injured a fair bit, so losing early doesn’t mean much to her.  It’s only her performance in Slams that she cares about.

This created a bit of weirdness when Dinara Safina was winning many tournaments but not winning Slams while Williams was winning no tournaments except Slams.

Unlike, say, American football, where each game in the regular season is more or less like any other game.  Each tournament win is not the same in tennis.  Slams are the most important.  Masters 1000 a level below that.

And players decide whether to play a tournament or not.  Players sign up for tournaments and then choose to skip it if they aren’t up to playing.  This sometimes strikes fans as unfair.  Just as fans booed the Colts for not trying to win every game, some tennis fans feel pros should play their best every tournament.  But since not all tournaments are created equal with the very best players eyeing the Slams.

Recently, Andy Murray headed to Dubai where he won one match and then lost to Janko Tipsarevic in the second round.  The match went three sets.  Tipsarevic had an early break in the third set and looked like he might win.  Murray had a game early on to break, but failed to do so, then broke late, only to be broken again.  He smashed his racquet at the end, seemingly upset at the result.

His attitude was different in the post-match interview.  He said that while he wanted to win, he was also trying new things out in match situations.  Murray has long been criticized for playing a passive game.  When you think Murray, you think of a guy that changes his pace and uses his speed to chase down balls.  Murray isn’t Gonzo or Verdasco or Federer.  His game isn’t to bludgeon his opponent with pace.

With his loss to Federer, surely the thought has occurred to Murray to up the power in his game.  Yet, making changes like this is not easy.  Players are surprisingly conservative when it comes to playing.  Could Nadal go for big shots like his countryman, Fernando Verdasco?  He could, but he’s not comfortable playing this way.  So, he doesn’t.

A player might try crazy shots in practice, but many are reluctant to try something new unless they are completely confident.  Think back to Steffi Graf.  She had a superior slice backhand, but everyone told her she needed to hit a topspin backhand to compete against players like Monica Seles.

Graf had plenty of opportunities to hit this shot in matches.  After all, she routinely beat players without giving up more than a game or two. Under such ideal circumstances, Graf was reluctant to hit topspin backhands to build her confidence.

Not all players are this reluctant to add new pieces to their game.  Martina Navratilova used to hit slice all the time like Graf.  She lacked a topspin backhand.  But she decided she need a topspin backhand.  She learned to hit it and used it frequently when she was world number 1.

Andy Murray spent ten days off after the Australian Open where he barely touched a racquet.  He went to the gym shortly afterwards, but was not in tip-top shape.  Because of this, he decided he wasn’t ready to play Marseille and dropped out.  The tournament director was critical.

Murray decided to play Dubai and won his first match, but against Janko Tipsarevic, he decided to “try a few things out”, to be more aggressive.  This meant serve and volley.  This meant hitting his backhand harder.  It wasn’t the way he normally plays matches.

He said he played like this so he’d be ready for Indian Wells and Miami, the first two Masters 1000 events of the season.  Masters 1000 are tournaments just under the Slams.  There are 9 such events and often boast a field as strong as the Slams, at least, at the very top.  He said if he had been practicing, he would have practiced this aggressive shot.

So what’s the dirty secret?  Players like Murray play for the big events: Slams and Masters 1000 events.  Dubai is an ATP 500 event, which is just underneath the Masters 1000.  To Murray, winning an ATP 500 event isn’t something he had to focus on, especially lacking some practice.  So it felt like he came to Dubai, played two matches, felt that was good enough. If Murray wasn’t trying to lose deliberately, he also wasn’t trying everything he could to win.

And yet, how wrong was he to do this?  Murray’s long-term goal is to win Slams.  To do so, he may need to add elements to his game.  It takes some bravery to try new tactics in match situations when you might lose.  There are those that claim he owes fans his best effort.  And yet, the best players know that they are not remembered for a small tournament they played, but for how they perform in Slams.  Much like the Colts chose to rest its players to maximize its chances to win the Superbowl, Murray seems to work on parts of his game in a smaller tournament to improve his chances in bigger tournaments.

This is the kind of interview that doesn’t get much play, but it shows a level of honesty that players are often advised not to give.   Andy Murray admits that he plays up for big events.  It happens all the time in tennis.  Few people are like Borg or Nadal or Lendl who wanted to win everything they were in.  Most great players take a more prudent approach to the Slams, playing for big events at the expense of small ones.

Djokovic Tested by Ljubicic

If this were a political thing, perhaps there would be more antagonism between Novak Djokovic, a Serb, and Ivan Ljubicic, a Croatian.

But each player has their own drama, independent of which country they play for.  In particular, Novak Djokovic, who came from nowhere in 2007 to be a solid number 3, and entered Dubai as world number 2, and yet seeded 2 because the draw came out before Roger Federer withdrew.

Djokovic still plays stretches of excellent tennis.  Last year, he was arguably the second best clay courter based on results.  Then, after the US Open, Djokovic also had a spate where he played well including beating Roger Federer in his hometown tournament at Basel.

But Djokovic hasn’t played the kind of tennis that lead him to two Slam semifinals in 2007 and a Slam final at the US Open the same year.  Djokovic found himself down two breaks and 6-2 after Ljubicic came out hitting the ball well while Djokovic struggled some.  Ljubicic, once ranked as high as number 3 in the world, had opportunities in the second set to break Djokovic, but failed to convert.  Djokovic eventually broke to win the second set, 6-4.

At this point, Ljubicic seemed dejected while Djokovic continued to play better and eventually won the third set going away, 6-0.

Djokovic is the defending champ, but many of the top seeds have fallen or didn’t arrive.  Federer, Murray, Davydenko are all out of the tournament.  Up next for Djokovic is Marcos Baghdatis who had a straight set win over German, Michael Berrer.  Berrer was the beneficiary of Davydenko retiring.

In the other half, Mikhail Youzhny beat Janko Tipsarevic in straight sets.  Tipsarevic had beaten Andy Murray in the previous round.  Youzhny plays Jurgen Melzer who beat Marin Cilic, the sixth seed, in two tight sets.  Dubai organizers have to be fretting that Youzhny is the only other seed besides Djokovic to make the semifinals.  What had promised to be Federer-Murray in one semis, and Djokovic-Davydenko in the other, has dwindled to only Djokovic as the top seed remaining.  As defending champ, he needs this title to avoid losing points.

Andy Murray, in his post-match interview, said that although he lost to Tipsarevic, he was using this match as a kind of practice.  Although the viewing public may feel they deserve a player’s best shot every time he goes out on court, most players, especially the best players, decide that some tournaments are more important than others.  Given his druthers, Murray may have skipped Dubai, but reeling on the criticism he took from skipping Marseille, Murray felt he had to show up and play a match or two.

Murray used the match against Tipsarevic to work on things he normally reserves for practice.  In particular, he tried to serve and volley more, avoid hitting too many slice backhands, and hit harder from the baseline.  Murray has long been criticized for playing too passive a game, and used the opportunity in match situation to play a riskier style.  Murray had a shot at winning the match, breaking back late in the third set to get on serve only to be broken in the next game and lose the match.

Murray pointed to playing well in Indian Wells.  His goal was to leave for Indian Wells approximately a week before the start of the tournament and make sure he gets acclimated to play in the US.  Murray had taken 10 days off without playing tennis.

Unlike American football, where teams are often playing hard just to make playoffs, tennis players have a handful of tournaments they want to do well in, and get to decide which tournaments they want to play and which they want to skip or even which tournaments they will work hard to win vs. which they don’t mind losing early.

Team sports generally don’t get that luxury.  They are forced to play game after game even if taking a break here and there would probably lead to higher quality games, or at the very least, the best players taking the field together.

Is Djokovic ready to defend his title?  We’ll see in the next few days!

Tipsy Upsets Murray in Dubai

After Andy Murray was dismissed in straight sets by Roger Federer, some may have thought Murray would have gone back to the drawing board, figuring how to retool his game to beat the number 1 player in the world.  However, the tears that came during the post-match ceremony was only the tip of the iceberg, so it seems, when it came to Murray’s psyche.

Murray took quite a few days off where he didn’t touch a racquet and just rested.  Only recently did he begin going to the gym and train.  Still, he had hoped, with Roger Federer out of the Dubai tournament due to a lung infection, he could make it to the semis or possibly challenge for the title.

This effort was derailed as Janko Tipsarevic, best known for pushing Roger Federer to five sets in the 2008 Australian Open, played aggressive tennis.  Tipsarevic took the first set against Murray in a tiebreak, before Murray squared the match away in the second set.

Tipsy took an early break to lead 3-0 in the third.  At 3-1, Tipsy was down 15-40, but fought off 5 break points to hold serve at 4-1.  Murray held to 4-2, then played a loose return game to give Tipsy the game to 5-2.  Murray held to 5-3 fairly easily.  Then, Murray broke to 5-4.  However, when it came time to hold, Murray found himself down 30-40 and with an aggressive shot, Tipsy approached the net, hit an overhead smash to seal the upset.  Murray, who had been irritated with his play, smashed his racquet, before coming up and shaking his opponent’s hand.

Dubai organizers had to be feeling bad that Murray was out, because Davydenko, who had some injury issues retired against German, Michael Berrer, after losing the first set, 6-3.  Tipsarevic will play Mikhail Youzhny in the next round.  Youzhny has been playing quite well this year.

One more match is scheduled: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga playing Croatian veteran, Ivan Ljubicic.

Midweek Results (Dubai, Acapulco, Delray Beach)

Hardcourt tournaments are so prevalent that there are three distinct hardcourt “seasons”.  The first starts at the beginning of the year and lasts until just before the start of the clay season.  It culminates in Indian Wells and Miami.

The second starts two weeks after Wimbledon and is the US Open series.  The third pretty much picks up after that, with a combination of hardcourt and indoor events.

This week, the big guns are in Dubai.  This field would normally be much stronger.  However, Roger Federer dropped out due to lung infection.  Nadal hasn’t come back since he retired against Andy Murray at the Australian Open.  Juan Martin del Potro has also been out.

Even so, Andy Murray, defending champ, Novak Djokovic, and Nikolay Davydenko are still playing.

In the early rounds, almost all seeds advanced.  This includes a straight set win by Djokovic over Garcia Lopez, a straight set win by Murray over Kunitsyn, and wins by Davydenko, Tsonga, Cilic, and Youzhny.  The only top seed to lose was Gilles Simon who lost in straight sets to Baghdatis.  Simon hasn’t played well since 2008 when he reached the top 10.  Even so, his rankings remain relatively high.

Despite this hardcourt season, there has been clay tournaments.  Two weeks ago, there was a clay even in Brazil.  Last week, many of the same players went to Buenos Aires.  This week, they are in Acapulco, Mexico.

Surprisingly, Sam Querrey and John Isner both chose to play Acapulco on clay.  One reason may be that Acapulco is an ATP 500 event while Delray Beach is an ATP 250 event.  Needless to say, clay isn’t a good surface for Americans.  Even a player like Wayne Odesnik, who can be said to like clay, isn’t in the top caliber of cla court players.  Querrey, for his part, did a respectable job losing in a third set tiebreak to Fernando Gonzalez.  Isner lost in two close sets to Greul.

In Delray Beach, top seeded Tommy Haas lost in straight sets to Teimuraz Gabashvili.  This was also Kei Nishikori’s return to the tour after a year off with injury.  He lost in 3 sets to German, Benjamin Becker.  All the seeds that played won, including Karlovic, Chady, Korolev, Mayer and James Blake beating Taylor Dent.  Ernests Gulbis beat Ryan Harrison in straight sets.

After this, there is almost a two week break before Indian Wells, a ten day event, followed by Miami, which is another ten day event.  Indian Wells should see the return of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and possibly, Juan Martin del Potro.

Querrey Wins Memphis

It was bound to happen at some point.  Sam Querrey finally met John Isner, his doubles partner, in a tournament.  Querrey won a tournament in 2008, but it was early in 2009 when he reached the finals of Auckland, losing to Juan Martin del Potro, that Querrey began to make his move up.  He decided to enter in pretty much every tournament after Wimbledon up to the US Open, and reached the finals of Newport, Indianapolis, and New Haven, and also won Los Angeles.

Isner didn’t quite have the same year.  He reached the semis of Washington DC, and upset Andy Roddick in the third round before losing to Verdasco in the following round.  Isner then won Auckland at the beginning of this year.

It looked like Isner was going to win his second tournament when he took the first set in a tiebreak against Querrey.  In the second set, Querrey was down 5-2 and 2 points from losing when he won 5 points in a row and took the second set.

Querrey was able to get an early break as Isner’s first serve percentage dropped and got a second break to win his first title of the year: 6-7(3), 7-6(5), 6-3.

The two were also entered in doubles and won their doubles final, 6-4, 6-4, beating Ross Hutchins and Jordan Kerr.

Sam Querrey is now ranked 22, one spot behind John Isner, who is ranked 21.

Coincidentally, two doubles partners also met in the final of Marseille and won their doubles final in the same event.  Llodra beat Benneteau in the singles final: 6-3, 6-4.  They beat the team of Knowle and Lindstedt, 6-4, 6-3.

In Buenos Aires, Juan Carlos Ferrero won his second tournament in a row, beating fellow Spaniard, David Ferrer, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.

Fed Withdraws from Dubai

Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin del Potro aren’t the only two players taking time off to recover.  Roger Federer, who was last seen winning the Australian Open, has withdrawn from Dubai next week, leaving Novak Djokovic, world number 2, as the top seed.  Andy Murray had been in the same half of the draw as Roger Federer.

The reason given was a lung infection.  Federer said he was having some problems breathing and doctor’s recommended he take two weeks to rest.

Roger Federer is expecting to return to play at Indian Wells, which is likely when Rafael Nadal will return as well.

In this week’s tournament, Sam Querrey beat Ernests Gulbis in straight sets to reach the finals of Memphis where he will meet John Isner.  Isner needed three sets to beat German, Philipp Petzschner.  Surprisingly, the doubles partners have never met in tournament play.  Isner recently won his first tournament in Auckland, prior to the Australian Open.  He is currently ranked 25 just a few spots ahead of Sam Querrey at 31.  Memphis is one of a handful of titles which hosts men and women at the same time.  It is an ATP 500 event.

In Marseille, unseeded Frenchman, Michael Llodra beat fellow countryman, Julien Benneteau, 6-3, 6-4.  Marseille is an ATP 250 event.

Juan Carlos Ferrero reaches his second consecutive final in Buenos Aires and will play fellow countryman and top seed, David Ferrer, in the final.  Buenos Aires is an ATP 250 event.

Tall American Guys

I don’t think Andy Roddick saw this coming.

When Sampras retired after the 2002 US Open and when Agassi retired after the 2006 US Open, we were left with the very serious questions: who’s the next great American?

Andy sometimes gets a bad rap.  There are those dedicated to Andy because Andy is our best American.  Perhaps those that love football or basketball where Americans simply dominate the sport might scoff at Andy Roddick, wondering why we should support a guy that lacks the insane skill of Roger Federer, or the bullish groundstrokes and mental tenacity of Rafael Nadal.  But there are those that look at Andy Roddick like they do our American contingent at the Olympics.

Americans ought to support Americans.  So even as a few cheered on Evan Lysacek, who was crowned with gold in men’s figure skating, they were cheering a man whose last name they couldn’t spell, whose name would have drawn blank faces only two weeks ago.  The dilemma might have proved straining had flamboyant Johnny Weir made the podium whose outfits seem even garish by women’s standards whose androgynous looks make men feel a bit uncomfortable.  Even then, such guys might have said, good going Johnny, even if Johnny ain’t quite right.  After all, they were willing to cheer Lysacek in Lycra, weren’t they.

But that was as long as Andy Roddick was in the top roost.  Roddick has stayed in the top ten for many years now with a game built around his big serve.  He isn’t the most dominating groundstroker (that is either Nadal or del Potro or Federer).  He doesn’t have tremendous touch.  He doesn’t have Federer’s gaudy talent.  But he hits pretty hard, is pretty steady.  He plays well enough to let most players beat themselves.  And that serve.  It gets him out of scrapes.  He’s not hitting as many aces as he used to, but he still holds quite a bit more than he doesn’t.

Roddick probably expected his challenges to come from guys like Federer and Nadal and increasingly Murray, Djokovic, del Potro, and Davydenko.  He’s been the best American for so long, topping out players like James Blake, Robby Ginepri, Jesse Levine, Robert Kendrick, Mardy Fish, and a whole host of Americans that lacked the talent Roddick has.  Yes, Roddick has talent, but everyone in the top ten has loads of talent too, and Roddick only pales by comparison.

But now Roddick’s challenges are increasingly coming from home soil.  The twin towers of Sam Querrey and John Isner have improved their games in strikingly similar ways.  Both men have always had big serves, but lately, both realize their forehands can be huge weapons and have both started pelting that inside out forehand, perhaps inspired by another gentle giant, Juan Martin del Potro.

Querrey and Isner are a far cry from the wild histrionics of John McEnroe or the combative personality of Jimmy Connors.  Fans of Connors may have pointed to him when bullies laughed at the prissy country club types that played tennis.  They said, look at Connors, he’s a tough guy.  You wouldn’t want to meet him in an alley.  It’s ironic that his game was guided by his mom, but then she was tough as nails.

Querrey and Isner are, for lack of a better word, nice guys.  I mean, really nice guys.  Andy Roddick?  You always get the sense he’s irritated at something.  ESPN made a joke video about Andy Roddick titled “Why So Angry?”.  At least Andy has a sense of humor to realize his penchant for pressuring officials in harsh tones.

Of the two, Querrey is the more outgoing.  He’s an easy going Californian that most people wouldn’t mind chilling with.  Isner, by contrast, is as shy as shy can be.  He perpetually wears his cap, as if that cap could hide the fact that he’s 6’9″.  It’s almost like he’s embarrassed to be so tall.  And he’s not a half-bad looking guy.  Roddick has been the sport’s pretty boy for a while, but he’s also had the kind of confident brashness that suits that kind of image.

Are these guys ready to show that nice guys can get to the top?

This week, Isner and Querrey made the semifinals at Memphis.  Querrey has been on a bit of a roll lately since he came back to tour earlier this year.  They say “one night in Bangkok and the tough guys tumble”.  Turns out even nice guys tumble too.  Through a glass table.  Querrey had just finished a shower and rather than sit on a chair he sat on in sweaty clothing prior to the shower, he decided to put his clothes on while sitting on a glass table.  That worked fine for 30 seconds until the table collapsed and Querrey had to go to a hospital, relieved that no nerves were cut.

Querrey had to take the rest of the year off spending several weeks in recovery, then several weeks in rehab, trying to get back into shape.  He wasn’t quite ready to play top flight tennis at the Australian Open, but he was almost there in San Jose when he pushed Andy Roddick to three sets.  Roddick needed two tiebreaks and all his experience to pull out a win where Roddick admitted that the other man was playing better tennis.

Querrey had a second chance at Roddick and beat him 7-5 3-6, 6-1 in the quarterfinals.  Querrey now plays Gulbis who  struggled in his win over Tomas Berdych in three sets in the quarter.  Ah, Ernests Gulbis.  People have been saying his name forever.  Much like Donald Young, he’s been seen as the next great player, except Gulbis has, on occasion, shown flashes of brilliance.  The brilliance, unfortunately, has generally lasted about a set or two.  He’s not had the big upsets that usually mark the sign of great player in waiting.

Even so, Gulbis has had a decent year, more than usual.  That doesn’t say much, but here he is in the semifinals, and while it’s an ATP 250 event, it’s big for Gulbis.  Even so, Querrey has had the better year, and despite his injury, he has returned where he left off, ready to play great tennis.

Isner rarely plays a guy that he can see eye to eye with, but his quarterfinal opponent was Ivo Karlovic, the big serving Croat.  Isner won this 6-1, 7-6(7).  He’s scheduled to play German, Philipp Petzchner, in the semis.  Petzchner beat Slovakian, Lukas Lacko, in a wild swing of a match, 6-1, 1-6, 6-1.

Both Isner and Querrey are probably favored to win their respective semis and hopefully put two Americans in the final that are not only America’s best prospects, but among their tallest.  And they’re nice guys, to boot.

In other tennis news, players who love their clay are in Buenos Aires.  This includes Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer, Juan Monaco, and Igor Andreev.  The Frenchies are doing pretty well in Open 13, a tournament in Marseille.  Tsonga, Monfils, Llodra, and Benneteau were in the quarters.  Tsonga plays Benneteau and Llodra plays Zverev, as three of the four semifinalists are French.

Next week, several tournaments are on tap, but the biggest one is Dubai where Roger Federer and Andy Murray make their return.  Novak Djokovic and Nikolay Davydenko are in the other half of the draw.  Juan Martin del Potro is still in the middle of his month-long break from tennis to heal his wrist.  Rafael Nadal will probably wait until Indian Wells to make his return.

Rafa’s Number 3!

Ah, the rankings.  How did Rafael Nadal go from number 4 to number 3 without playing?  Last we say, Nadal was retiring from his quarterfinal encounter with Andy Murray at the Australian Open.  As the defending champion, Nadal lost a ton of points when his results from last year fell off.

For those who don’t know, the rankings for a player comes from 18 tournaments.  14 of the tournaments are generally spoken for, 4 Grand Slam majors, 9 Masters 1000 events which are essentially mandatory for top players (I believe 1 of the events is not mandatory–might be Monte Carlo), and the year end tournament now titled the ATP World Tour Finals. So only 13 are really “required”.

Then, four more ATP 500 events (the eight Masters 1000 can be used as well), plus 2 other events.

Anyway, it’s a little complicated.

Suppose a player plays Doha in 2009 and wins it receiving 500 pts.  If the player does not play Doha in 2010, they lose 500 pts once the event is over.  They may be able to gain points if they play a different tournament in the same week, or the penalty of losing 500 pts might be offset by playing a tournament before or after Doha that wasn’t played the previous year.  But by and large, players “defend” points by trying to play as well in a tournament as they did the previous year.

How did Rafa go from number 4 to number 3?  It turns out both Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray played in Rotterdam in 2009.  Murray beat Nadal in the finals.  Murray had 500 points for the win.  Nadal had 300 points for the finalist position.  Neither player chose to play Rotterdam.  This means, Murray lost 200 more points than Nadal when the tournament concluded.

Unfortunately for Murray, he was only 130 points ahead prior to Rotterdam, so losing 200 pts meant falling back 70 pts.  Had Murray had some spare tournament that wasn’t being counted, he might have lost less points.  Your point total is based on a “best 18″, and so having a spare tournament or so might have helped.

As it turns out, both Murray and Nadal will play Dubai.  Nadal didn’t play Dubai last year, so he’ll get points for Dubai.  This may knock Rotterdam (which he has a 0) off his list of tournaments that contribute to his ranking.  Meanwhile, Murray reached the quarterfinals of Dubai and earned 90 pts.  He needs to get that far again to defend his point.  Murray likely has to get at least one round further than Nadal to go to number 3.

The two may trade off between 3 and 4.  Djokovic has a 940 pt lead over Nadal currently.  He is also the defending champion at Dubai, so Djokovic may lose points there while Nadal may gain points.  The likelihood is Djokovic will remain at number 2.  Djokovic would pretty much have to lose in the first round while Nadal wins the tournament to make up 1000 points.

Because Rafa is 3 in the world, it’s now possible that Rafa and Roger might be in the same half of the draw in Dubai.  The last time this happened with any seriousness was at the US Open last year when Murray was seeded second.  As it turns out, Nadal and Federer were on opposite halves of the draw.  If Djokovic can continue to play well, there’s a possibility of Nadal and Federer landing on the same half.  Andy Murray can also affect this as well.  If Murray plays well too, Nadal and Federer could be in the same half.

As far as tournaments go, being ranked 3 and 4 are pretty much the same thing.  You can only meet one of the top 2 seeds in the semifinals, and you can’t meet the other seed except in the finals.  In the same way, being number 1 and 2 are also pretty much the same thing.