Doubleheader
It’s rare, in tennis, to have a double-header, that is, to play two matches in one day (the term comes from baseball, where double-headers are often used to make up for games that were canceled due to weather).
Due to Hurricane Danny, the mid-Atlantic coast up through to New England got doused with rain. This meant the Pilot Pen Classic had to call play for Friday, and none of the semifinals were played.
Unlike the rest of the US Open Series, the finals of the Pilot Pen Classic were originally scheduled for Saturday, not Sunday. The reason, ostensibly, was to allow players to head to the US Open and have a day off.
Presumably, for this reason (and fans that may have travelled to watch a match on Saturday), the organizers scheduled the semifinals and finals on the same day.
Because of the weather, they decided to hold the semifinals indoors at a nearby facility. They had already done this for the women’s semifinals on Friday.
In the morning semifinal, Sam Querrey played Jose Acasuso. Remember Acasuso? The guy that gave Federer trouble in the French Open? Querrey had a comfortable win, 6-3, 6-4.
In the other semifinal, Fernando Verdasco beat Igor Andreev in two tiebreaks, 7-6(4), 7-6(5).
Querrey and Verdasco then came back later that evening to play the finals (at 7 PM), which seemed to start much later. This would be Querrey’s third final in the US Open Series. Querrey also made the final in Indianapolis and Los Angeles, winning in Los Angeles. Querrey also reached the finals of Newport, but that’s not part of the US Open Series, but it did start him on a run of good tournaments.
Despite the pro-Querrey crowd and cool temperatures, Verdasco would take the first set, 6-4, and had a break up in the second. Down 2-4 in the second, Querrey had to dig himself out of a marathon match, one that had ten deuces. Having held to 3-4, Querrey would break back and the two would go on serve until the tiebreak. In the tiebreak, Querrey had three opportunities to take the second set but Verdasco eventually won 8 points to 6. As talented as Verdasco is, this was only his third career title. His last title came in 2008 in Umag, Croatia.
US Open starts Monday with Querrey winning the US Open Series. Andy Murray, who only played two events, was second, winning Montreal and losing in the semifinal in Cincinnati. del Potro came in third, playing two events as well, winning Washington DC, and losing in the finals of Montreal.
The US Open starts Monday at 11. Roger Federer plays Monday opening up with NCAA champ, Devin Britton.
Strategic Losses?
Sam Querrey is tennis’s marathon man. He’s the only player that has played the entire US Open Series. Indeed, he’s played every week since Wimbledon ended, including a grass event at Newport. He’s played a lot of tennis.
Querrey won Los Angeles, then played two matches in DC, losing to eventual finalist, Andy Roddick. In Montreal, Querrey had his earliest loss in the series, losing to Petzchner. It was a respectable loss given Petzchner’s ranking of 45. Even so, this early loss meant he had quite a few days of rest leading up to Cincinnati where he beat Roddick before losing to Hewitt.
Right now, Querrey is in the semifinal, having beaten another top ten player, Nikolay Davydenko in the quarterfinals, his second top ten win (the other being Andy Roddick). Historically, players playing the week before a major would sometimes strategically lose.
The reason? Although players were fit, they were not as fit as today’s players. They used the extra time to head to the tournament site and begin preparations without being rushed.
For a player like Andreev or Acasuso, two of the semifinalists in New Haven, planning a strategic loss may not be that important. Winning a smaller event is more important to them because at a certain level, it’s hard to win titles. Tim Henman, for all his skill, only won 11 ATP titles.
For a player like Verdasco, he may really want to win this tournament too, considering how few matches he’s played. It would be nice to go into the US Open on a streak. Prior to New Haven, he played four matches, and pretty much only Davis Cup and a clay court event prior to the hard court season.
Querrey, on the other hand, has played a lot. He faces Jose Acasuso in one semifinals. Verdasco plays Andreev in the other semifinal. Although the US Open should make accomodations to these players (pushing their start til mid-week), the question is whether Querrey should try to win New Haven or not. Given that Querrey is expected, by seeding, to make it to the third round (3 matches), it might be fine for him to try to win the tournament. His biggest obstables would be Soderling and Davydenko.
The Williams sisters used to get injured a fair bit. It seems their strategy, as of late, is to play only a few rounds, lose early, and spend their effort playing the Slams. As much as Serena is clamoring for the #1 ranking, she has won only 2 tournaments this year: the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Of course, if you’re only going to win 2, those are good choices. These losses are seen as either strategic or even a matter of not caring. The Williams sisters prefer to say that they aren’t so motivated to win rather than they are purposely losing to avoid injury.
Still, Querrey has a decent shot at making the quarterfinals. It’s not easy by any means, but he hasn’t had the misfortune of having Federer or Nadal sooner than the quarterfinals.
What would you do?
US Open draw announced
Ever since Andy Murray moved up to number 2 in the world in Montreal, the possibility lingered that Nadal and Federer could now appear in the same half of the US Open draw. Tournament organizers had to be hoping fervently that that wouldn’t happen. Although Americans are Anglophiles, Andy Murray still lacks the name recognition of the Spaniard.
So it was with bated press the tennis public awaited the release of the full draw, which came out at noon on ESPN, Friday, August 27th. This was the first time the draw had been announced on TV much in the spirit of announcing March Madness participants. And it was with relief, to some, that Rafael Nadal ended up in Murray’s half, much as he did last year.
That left Novak Djokovic in Roger Federer’s half.
Let’s take a quick look at the draw. Roger opens up with last year’s NCAA champ, Devin Britton. Britton recently made the semis of Wimbledon boys event and has since turned pro. This should be an easy opening round for Roger.
Roger’s eighth of the draw actually looks pretty smooth. Hewitt and Robredo appear to be his biggest challenges. Davydenko, who is playing to day against Querrey, is in a much tougher eighth. In his eighth, there is Mathieu, Youzhny, Soderling, and Querrey. For all of Querrey’s success, he ended up in a tough section of the draw.
In the next section, Djokovic opens up against Ljubicic. This is the Serbian vs. Croatian and may have a rowdy crowd, though it would have been noisier in Australia. Ljubicic had been playing decent clay court tennis leading up to the French, but there’s been barely a peep since then. Djokovic, provided he gets past Croatia’s Mr. Clean, will face the winner of two qualifiers.
In his eighth, Djokovic has Kohlschreiber (beat him at the French), Seppi (Kohlschreiber’s opponent), Andreev, Mayer, and Stepanek. It’s fairly tough, but not as tough as Davydenko’s section.
Djokovic could meet Roddick again in the quarterfinals. Roddick is in Djokovic’s quarter. Roddick has Isner, Haas, and Verdasco in his section. Isner plays a tough one right off the bat against Hanescu. Roddick’s section doesn’t look particularly daunting.
In Nadal’s quarter, his top seeded rival is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Gonzalez and Berdych are in Tsonga’s eight of the draw. Nadal opens his US Open with someone who had a bit of an unfortunate kiss. Yes, Richard Gasquet. Gasquet hasn’t played in quite a while, even longer than Nadal. Despite the potential of being a very tough match, Gasquet would have had to be practicing in secret and added a new twist to his game a la Kim Clijsters to knock Nadal out. Still, if he has done that, a very intriguing matchup.
In his eighth, Monfils, Almagro, and Ferrer are the seeded players. It ought to be a comfortable go to the final 16 for Nadal. We’ll see what shape Nadal is in to play best of 5.
Surprisingly, del Potro is in Murray’s quarter for the second year in a row. del Potro opens with fellow countryman, Juan Monaco, who beat Andy Murray back in Rome. Ferrero, Fish, Simon are in his section. So is Safin and Guccione. A potentially challenging section for del Potro, who skipped Cincinnati.
Murray opens up with Ernests Gulbis. Gulbis has had a pretty mundane year. There was promise he’d do better in 2008. He’s been trying to work on fitness this year. Gulbis gave a challenge to Roddick last year, but despite his potential, should pose few problems for Murray. Lopez, Karlovic, Wawrinka, and Cilic are in his eighth.
Predictions anyone?
New Haven Quarterfinals
The elite players have mostly headed to NYC to start training for the US Open, many having arrived on Monday. However, many players who haven’t had enough hard court practice or who are looking for some match wins have elected to play New Haven which is an hour or two from NYC and the home of Yale University.
Top seeded Nikolay Davydenko spent the early part of the hard court season in Europe playing Hamburg and Umag, which he won. He hasn’t had a great hard court season since coming to the US, but he is the top seed at New Haven.
Today’s most intriguing match is Davydenko against Sam Querrey. Querrey is already tied with Murray on the US Open Series.
The US Open Series consists of men’s and women’s tournaments. On the men’s side, the tournaments include Indianapolis, Los Angeles, Washington DC, Montreal, Cincinnati, and New Haven. Querrey has played all of these tournaments. With a win today, he’ll be number 1 in the point standings. Even though he is tied with Murray, Querrey would be considered the “top” point-getter based on a tiebreak which rewards the player that has more match wins. Querrey has played a lot more so he has more match wins.
The series was meant to encourage TV coverage of the smaller events leading up to the US Open, especially tournaments like Indianapolis, LA, and New Haven. The point system is different from the normal ATP system and rewards playing the smaller events more than the ATP rankings would.
The top three point getters, in this case, Querrey, Murray, and del Potro then get a bonus based on how far they get in the US Open. If you are the top point getter and win the US Open, you earn a million dollars bonus.
The Querrey-Davydenko match is an important one for Querrey’s career development. Davydenko is still the higher ranked player. Although he’s far removed from the days when he was number 4 in the world, he’s got his ranking back in the top 10. On paper, Davydenko is favored, and in reality, he’s probably favored. Still, it will bode well for Querrey to have a good win now.
The one advantage Querrey might have is an odd one. There’s certainly incentive for Davydenko to win, as there usually is. However some players sometimes tank a match prior to a big major. They want to play a few matches, get some solid hitting, then head over a few days early to prep for the big event. Arguably, Querrey shouldn’t be so worried about that right now, and should look to winning smaller titles. It depends pretty much on his health.
Other matches today. Verdasco and Melzer. Despite his high ranking, Verdasco hasn’t had that inspiring a year outside his great run at Melbourne. You would think the hard courts would favor his big banging style. Still, it bodes well for Fernando that he’s still in the tournament. Melzer is a tough lefty veteran who has been on the tour for a while. The two play similarly. Given his ranking, Verdasco needs this win more than Melzer.
Next up is Igor Andreev and Leonardo Mayer. Andreev is a steady player who likes playing way behind the baseline. He’s generally more than a handful for anyone he plays. Mayer is an up-and-coming player from Argentina. His results seem to indicate that faster surfaces are better for him, perhaps much like del Potro.
Finally, Jose Acasuso and Florent Serra. Serra won a close match against Rajeev Ram. Ram was two points from victory, but lost a tiebreak and a third set.
The crowds should be cheering for Querrey, and amongst the tennis watchers, for Fernando Verdasco. The other two quarters should only appeal to those who are really heavy into their tennis and like watching more obscure players.
US Open Dark Horses
Let’s look back to last year’s US Open men’s quarterfinals. Rafael Nadal beat Mardy Fish. Andy Murray beat Juan Martin del Potro. Novak Djokovic beat Andy Roddick. Roger Federer beat Gilles Muller.
Of the eight quaterfinalists, one was very surprising (Gilles Muller), two were surprising (del Potro and Fish), and one was mildly surprising (Roddick). Let’s see why. First Mueller. Muller was a qualifier. The guy played well as a junior, but otherwise is not that well known.
Although del Potro has proved himself a top player, at the time, he had just beaten Andy Roddick and wasn’t even ranked high enough to represent Argentina in the Olympics. He had a great streak of four consecutive tournament wins, but they were pretty small tournaments depleted of talent because of the Olympics. The US Open was a kind of coming out party for del Potro.
Mardy Fish had a pretty good year in 2008, but it was a little surprising that he beat his buddy James Blake, though in hindsight, Blake was beginning to slide in 2008 and continues to do poorly (by his standards) in 2009. Fish is a good, hard-hitting player, a top 20 talent, but not someone you would have picked to be in the final 8.
In 2008, Roddick had been having a down year. He had started the year well, but got injured in Rome, skipped the French, wasn’t really ready for Wimbledon, and decided that he would be better served skipping the Olympics and playing the US Open Series.
In Los Angeles, Roddick got to the final, but he lost to del Potro. At the time, this seemed like a huge upset. If he were to have known that del Potro would beat him twice more in 2009 or push Federer to the brink at the French Open, he might have thought it wasn’t such an upset. What was an upset was his loss to Viktor Troicki at Legg Mason.
Suddenly, Roddick was feeling a bit desperate. He had been coached by his brother, John Roddick, up to that point, and asked Davis Cup coach, Patrick McEnroe to coach him through the US Open. It didn’t look good. He had an early match against Ernests Gulbis, a talented player that everyone thought was on the rise (a year later, not so much), but beat him, and beat Seppi and Gonzalez in the next two rounds rather handily. No one would have expected that he would have done as well as he did, even if he was capable.
Pretty much, everyone else was expected to be there: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic had been good until the later rounds. Andy Murray was just starting to climb up the ranks. He had a respectable Wimbledon (lost in the quarters to Nadal) and won Cincinnati.
Why the history? Any time you pick dark horses, there’s going to be one or two players that you won’t have anticipated getting that far. Muller is a prime example. No one will pick him this year either.
With that in mind, we’ll look at a few dark horses that probably won’t win the US Open, but might make it through a few rounds. They might also lose early too, so who knows.
John Isner. We only put him first because Isner’s website reference an earlier article. However, Isner has had a decently good summer. He reached the semifinals of Indianapolis, the quarterfinals of Los Angeles, and the semifinals of Washington DC. For a guy ranked around 150 at the start of the year, this is a tremendous accomplishment (he’s currently 55). Along the way, he beat Berdych, Tsonga, and Haas. Isner decided to skip New Haven. Isner needs a pretty favorable draw. He won’t be ranked high enough to get seeded, but he won’t have to qualify either (he’d probably get a wildcard if he did). Could upset a low seed.
Sam Querrey. Isner’s summer is pretty notable given how low his rank is, but Querrey’s summer has been stellar. He hasn’t had the summer that del Potro had last year, which was even better. Querrey reached the finals at Newport and Indianapolis before finally winning a title at Los Angeles. Although most of his wins have been against lesser players, he did notch two big wins: Tommy Haas (in Los Angeles) and Andy Roddick (in Cincinnati). Querrey has been committed to playing the entire US Open Series and has done that and even played Newport. Basically, he’s played every week since Wimbledon. He’s likely to win the point race in the US Open Series because of this. The downside? Will he be too fatigued by the US Open? Unlike Nadal, Querrey at least doesn’t make the later rounds of most tournaments, except early on, he did.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. It’s kinda hard to call the 7th ranked player in the world a dark horse, and to be honest, his record has been very spotty this summer. He lost to Isner, Guccione, and Murray. Tsonga has shown this year that big servers give him problem, of the tall variety. He lost to Karlovic at Wimbledon, to Isner at Washington, and Guccione at Cincinnati. But, he beat the one guy that really matters, Roger Federer. Tsonga is so up-and-down, it’s hard to say how he’ll do at the Open.
Nikolay Davydenko. It’s hard to call the 8th ranked player in the world a dark horse, too. Davydenko has had a pretty good summer. Too bad it’s on clay. He won Hamburg and Umag. He reached the quarters of Montreal where he lost to Andy Murray, and lost to Gilles Simon in Cincinatti in the 3rd round. He’s upped his ranking the last few months, and can play well on any surface that isn’t grass. Here’s a guy that could make it a few rounds at the Open.
Lleyton Hewitt. Hewitt is kind of today’s Jimmy Connors. He’s tough and relishes the battle. He had a great Wimbledon, nearly knocking out Andy Roddick. He lost to del Potro in DC and to Federer in Cincinnati. The key for him is health. Hewitt’s knee had been bothering him, but presuming he gets enough rest between now and the Open, he might have a few surprises.
Juan Carlos Ferrero. Ferrero, like Hewitt, has been trying to get his ranking respectable. Like Davydenko, he played on clay after Wimbledon (where he reached the quarters). Lost to Haas in DC. Lost to Murray in Montreal. He and Hewitt are the old men, both former number 1 players, that might create noise.
Tommy Haas. Although hard courts may be Haas’s best surface, he had a very good French Open and Wimbledon. The hard courts haven’t been so kind this year. He lost to Gonzalez twice, once in DC, and retired in Montreal. He lost to Querrey in Los Angeles and Isner in Cincinnati. The likelihood is Haas is not quite ready for the Open given his record so far.
Fernando Gonzalez. Gonzo got to the semifinals at DC (losing to del Potro) and the 3rd round of Montreal (losing to Davydenko) and retired against Berdych. He’s trending a bit in the wrong direction. He’s always dangerous.
There are a few other names that haven’t done that well this summer that you might have expected. Verdasco is perhaps tops. With his stellar Australian Open performance, you would have thought he’d carry on his success, yet he’s been pretty quiet. Soderling withdrew from DC and lost to Hewitt in a close match in Cincinnati.
There’s likely to be someone a little unexpected making it far, but the US Open tends to hold to form with most players making the quarterfinals coming out of the top 32 seeds. Perhaps someone like Safin (ha) can have one last hurrah, but the 2008 Wimbledon was likely his last hurrah.
Although the winner is likely to come from the top 4 players in the world, players like John Isner can hope to make a decent run.
US Open Preview
The US Open is now a week away. There is technically one more tournament in the US Open Series: the Pilot Pen Classic in New Haven, Connecticut. None of the top 6 players are slated to play which include Federer, Murray, Nadal, Djokovic, Roddick, and del Potro.
The highest ranked players that will play are Davydenko and Gilles Simon.
Most of the favorites are using the week off to prep up for the US Open. With two weeks of intense play, the favorites are likely to take a day or two off to recover, then start training in earnest for the US Open.
Let’s rewind back to the French Open. This will be instructive because what people thought about who would do well in the French did not exactly pan out. Prior to the French, there were three Masters 1000 tournaments. Recall Masters 1000 are tournaments that are just under the Grand Slams themselves. Top players are basically required to play or they get 0 points. It’s pretty strong incentive.
The three Masters 1000 tournaments were Monte Carlo (won by Nadal), Rome (won by Nadal), and Madrid (won by Federer). Going into the French Open, everyone figured that Nadal was still the favorite. He had never lost at the French, so it would be heresy to suggest that someone might take the title away from Nadal.
Let’s consider who his big rivals were. Nadal played Djokovic three times in these tournaments and beat him three times. The third time, they played in the semis of Madrid, and Djokovic played an incredibly close match, having match points in a third set tiebreak. Nadal played outstanding tennis to take that victory. But throughout that match, Nadal seemed a bit edgy. He had complained about the tournament. It was played in altitude. He felt he couldn’t control the shots the way he wanted.
Although Federer beat Nadal in the finals of Madrid, Nadal was arguably weary compared to the fresher Federer. And even though Federer won in straight sets, he was in danger of losing his break in the second set and who knows what might have happened then. In other words, although Federer showed he could finally beat Nadal, it was a best of 3 set match, and Nadal had just played a very tough semis. Could Federer really beat Nadal in a best of 5?
Nadal’s biggest rival was perhaps Novak Djokovic who could at least rally with Nadal, and looked much more evenly matched. With Federer’s inconsistent 2008 and 2009, it was hard to tell whether Federer could play brilliant enough tennis to beat Nadal. Still, there was a glimmer of hope.
So prior to the French, Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer seemed, on form, to be the guys to beat. Andy Murray, for his part, did better on clay than he had in previous years, but in previous years, he played awful. And del Potro wasn’t that much on the radar, though he did play better as the clay season moved on.
It came as a shock that Djokovic lost in the third round, and an even bigger shock that Nadal lost to Robin Soderling in the fourth round. Indeed, few would have predicted that Andy Murray would get to the quarterfinals and make it further in the tournament than either Nadal or Djokovic. It may be that the Madrid semis were so taxing to both Nadal and Djokovic that both suffered as a result. Meanwhile, del Potro made it to the semifinals, his best showing in a Slam yet, and pushed Federer to the brink.
Let’s now fast forward to now and see where things stand with the top 6 players heading into the US Open.
Roger Federer. He’s the prohibitive favorite. If he plays like he did in Cincinnati, he may be really tough. Still, hard courts favor so many of the top players. Djokovic, Murray, del Potro, and Roddick all believe that hard courts are their best surface. Arguably, Federer likes it too, but he’s a better grass court player than hard court, mostly because his competition doesn’t play as well on grass. But one only has to look back to Montreal where Federer gagged big time against Tsonga giving up a 5-1 lead to lose in a tiebreak. Still, the best of 5 format has suited Roger who can play 2 bad sets but still recover.
Andy Murray. For the first time, Murray will enter the US Open as the number 2 seed. Andy Murray has to hope that Nadal falls in Federer’s side of the draw, although Nadal is quite iffy at this point, but certainly, Murray would feel his chances are better against Djokovic than Nadal. Murray has had a pretty good summer. He won Montreal and he made the semis of Cincinnati. Because Murray lacks the kind of power game of Federer or Nadal, he’s always seen as a suspect choice, like he can’t win the big one. Even so, his record shows that he can play on hard courts, and you have to pick him at least until the semifinals. Murray’s main concern is playing someone that can outhit him. He’ll hope that the temperatures are hot and he can use his fitness and guile to take him far into the draw.
Rafael Nadal. Rafa has shown he can still beat most of the guys outside the top 10. The real question is how he matches up anyone else in the top 6. Rafa lost to del Potro in Montreal where he was broken three times in the second set, losing 6-1. Rafa also lost to a very steady Djokovic. Although hard courts are Rafa’s weakest surface, he’s even more vulnerable this year because he hasn’t had time to fully recover. Indeed, his problem is the opposite of most years. Normally, Rafa comes into the US Open pretty beaten up, and doesn’t have the stamina or consistency to win the US Open. Last year’s semifinal run was his best run at the Open. He’s never made the finals. This year, he comes in with not enough practice. The question is whether another week of practice will get him to where he needs to be. There were promising signs that he was getting better, especially against Tomas Berdych, but his loss to Djokovic shows that he may not be ready to get to the final. The only solace for Nadal is that he and Djokovic will be on opposite sides of the draw.
Novak Djokovic. As far as Slams go, Djokovic has had a mediocre year. Compare this to 2007 when Djokovic made the semis of the French and Wimbledon, and the finals of the US Open, or to 2008 where he won in Australia, and made the semis of the French and the US Open. This year, Djokovic lost in the quarterfinals of the Australian, in the third round of the French, and in the quarterfinals at the US Open. He lost to Andy Roddick again in Montreal, before making the final at Cincinnati and defeating Rafael Nadal along the way. Novak’s problems have generally been fitness. Can he deal with the heat? Ever since his debacle at last year’s US Open, Djokovic has kept a much lower profile, and this may be winning him some fans back who, hopefully for him, have a short memory. Djokovic will be seen as a dark horse favorite mostly because he’s had such an up-and-down year. Hard courts are his best surface and he’s looking to finally do really well at a Slam. Can he do it?
Andy Roddick. Roddick came out of Wimbledon with newfound respect. After having been beaten so many times by Federer, typically with lopsided scores, Roddick finally pushed Federer to the brink. However, Federer showed incredible patience since his own serve was nearly as good as Roddick’s until Roddick finally wilted under the pressure. Roddick was hoping to play a lot of the US Open Series matches, but was out three weeks due to injuries. He skipped Indianapolis and Los Angeles which he had intended to play. Roddick was hoping that playing early would give him an edge. However, he lost twice to del Potro, once in Washington DC in the finals, and once again in Montreal in the semifinals. Roddick then lost early in Cincinnati to Querrey in the second round. Although his results were somewhat like 2008, Roddick felt better this year, probably because del Potro was unknown last year (he lost to del Potro in Los Angeles) and Troicki was even more unknown (he lost to him in DC). del Potro is now a top 10 player and a dangerous one at that and Querrey had had a very good summer. Can Roddick do well at the US Open? He can, but it’s hard to pick him past the quarterfinals.
Juan Martin del Potro. Of the top 6 players, many people are now looking at del Potro has perhaps the second or third favorite behind Andy Murray. Indeed, some might put him just behind Roger Federer. del Potro won DC and beat Roddick in the finals. He beat Roddick again in the semifinals of Montreal. Folks like his huge serve and huge forehand which puts many players on their heels. When del Potro played Andy Murray in the finals of Montreal, they played very tight. Even so, Murray knew del Potro was struggling with fitness at the start of the second set. He just needed to win the second set, and del Potro would be finished. And he was. del Potro dropped out of Cincinnati presumably to recover, and perhaps to do some fitness training. This is del Potro’s one big weakness. Although he’s a fighter, you can fight against the heat only so long. Indeed, it’s one thing he shares with Djokovic, though Djokovic has presumably been working on fitness lately.
Going into the US Open, Federer is the overwhelming favorite (nearly overwhelming). Then, it’s probably a toss-up between del Potro and Murray. Then, Nadal and Djokovic. Finally, Roddick. The one player that’s played quite well this US Open Series is Sam Querrey, but his run is nowhere compared to del Potro’s run. The question is whether all that playing will wear Querrey down or not. Beyond this group, there might be players like Verdasco or Tsonga or Isner or Davydenko or Haas that could play well, but most people are looking to someone in the top 6 being the eventual champion.
Fed Takes Cincinnati
At the time Federer had lost to Djokovic in Miami, people were openly questioning whether Federer was on a slide. He had already spent some time off trying to recover from where his game was, much like Nadal is trying to come back, although his return is due to injury.
When Miami concluded, Federer made an odd statement. He said he was happy to leave the hard courts behind, and was ready to play on clay. It was odd because Federer’s weakest surface is clearly clay. And yet, with a bit of luck and hard work, he came through the clay court season with a win at Madrid and at Paris.
With the US Open looming, Federer found himself in a situation much like the semifinal against Murray, facing a rival that appeared to have turned the tide against Federer. Federer has long believed that the numerous losses to rivals Murray and Djokovic were something of a fluke. He felt, were he playing his best tennis, he could still beat both his up-and-coming rival. In the semifinal, Federer overpowered a shell-shocked Murray, before Murray held tough in the second to keep it interesting. Federer closed that match out in straight sets.
With his win over Nadal, Djokovic looked like he would give Federer a tough time, but if anything, Federer looked even more dominant against Djokovic. Djokovic looked like a shell of himself from yesterday’s match. Shots that were falling in were starting to fall out. It was hard to say whether his poor play was due to Federer or just due to a bad day. Soderling admitted after his loss to Roger at the French Open that he plays poorly against Federer, but he realized that it was Roger that made him play poorly.
As much as Roger and Rafa are seen as the class of the field, their opponents seem to judge them differently. Rafa, for all his topspin and power, generally plays more conservative. It’s almost like a 3.5 player playing a 4.5 where the 4.5 plays within himself and the 3.5 struggles to keep it even close, until the 4.5 gets the shot he wants and puts it away. Rafa takes less risk, but when he’s in trouble himself, he can hit fantastic shots. Roger, on the other hand, has always preferred a higher risk approach, hitting to one line, then hitting to the other line. Roger will take a return up the middle and power an inside out shot out of reach, trying to end the point quickly.
Roger quickly took a 5-0 lead before Novak finally had one game. Djokovic looked a bit slow, and certainly a bit inconsistent. Roger closed out the set at 6-1. In the second set, Djokovic, much like Murray, fought harder and even had an early break, but Roger seemed unconcerned. He was able to break back, then break a second time at 5-all, and have an easy hold to take a straight set win over his other rival, reproducing his US Open effort, except in reverse (in the US Open, he beat Novak in the semis, and Murray in the finals).
Roger looks like he’s the expected favorite to win the US Open, but recall that del Potro didn’t play Cincinnati (though he has never lost to del Potro) and that Andy Roddick lost early (though he dominates Roddick). There’s also Rafael Nadal. Can he do enough training and recovery to make a deep run at the US Open? Because Andy Murray was able to take advantage of Nadal’s absence, he was able to move to 2nd seed, which means there’s a chance that Roger and Rafa could be in the same half of the US Open. This would leave Djokovic in the same half as Murray.
There’s one tournament left before the US Open, which is New Haven. Most of the top players will take that week off to do their final preparations. The one guy that is expected to play New Haven is Sam Querrey. He’s played the entire US Open Series. Because he has done so well at the series, he may be able to win the US Open Series with the increased points given to smaller events in the series. The top 3 point getters at the US Open Series get bonus money depending on how far they get at the US Open.
Meanwhile, Federer has to feel great beating two of his top rivals. Last year, at this time, Roger was struggling with his game. Despite some relatively poor first serve percentage serving, Federer was able to win nearly all points on first serves, which is exactly the kind of confidence Roger wants heading into the US Open.
Reversal of Fortune
The semifinal matchups provided a bit of intrigue. Although Federer regained number 1 after his victory at Wimbledon, there were those who felt that he wasn’t worthy of GOAT (greatest of all times) status. How could Federer be the best ever if he had losing records to his top rivals, people asked? In particular, Andy Murray had a 6-2 record over Federer including the last four matches, all on hard courts.
Federer is not one lacking for confidence. Despite Murray’s mastery over the Swiss number 1, Federer has always believed that he controlled the outcome of the matches. If he played well, Murray couldn’t stop him. The record says otherwise, but nevertheless, each of the last four matches went three sets, partly backing Roger’s claims. Federer could always point to the record that matters most to him: head-to-head in Slams, and there, Roger has a 1-0 lead, his US Open title in 2008 which he won in straight sets.
When Roger took time off to retool his game, he spent a great deal of time working on his serve. This was surprising because the one reliable part of his game was his serve. It was his groundstrokes that were giving him issues, frequently shanking balls, and throwing errors in bunches, that everyone thought he should be spending time on. However, Federer understood it’s much easier to win matches if they can’t break your serve.
Roger started this match playing blistering tennis, mixing his slices with his laser-like forehand. Although Roger didn’t have a high serving percentage against Murray (56%), when he did get it in, he won 90% of all points. Murray seemed to have trouble dealing with Roger’s second serve and never had a break point chance. Meanwhile, Roger broke Murray twice, often attacking the Murray second serve, coming to net, and putting pressure on his rival.
Murray generally doesn’t get blown out two sets in a row, provided the weather isn’t a windstorm. Sure enough, he tightened up in the second set, holding his serve and getting the match to a tiebreak. Although Murray was keeping it close, it still felt like Roger was in control. Roger finally sealed the deal when Andy Murray did something that Roger did last week. Double-fault on match point.
Novak Djokovic is tennis’s forgotten man. Although he’s had a pretty successful year, it hasn’t been in the Slams where it matters. He retired against Roddick at the Australian. He lost to Philipp Kohlschreiber at the French in the 3rd round, perhaps the result of a tough match against Nadal in Madrid that perhaps took a toll on both these men. At Wimbledon, Djokovic lost to Tommy Haas who had beaten him in Halle as well.
Nadal, by contrast, with low expectations set by his team, was looking pretty good, beating Paul-Henri Mathieu and Tomas Berdych. Still, Mathieu and Berdych are not at the level of Djokovic, who can force Nadal to hit a lot of balls, and has great accuracy on his shots. Djokovic is simply at a different level, which is one reason he’s in the top 4.
Hard courts are clearly Djokovic’s favorite surface and one where his game matches up well with Nadal. In particular, Djokovic’s serve allows him to hold his own serve more easily. Although Nadal’s serve has improved, he’s still not back to serving at the level he had earlier in the year, which allowed Djokovic to engage in long rallies with Nadal where he moved him around the court, testing Rafa’s fitness.
In the first set, much like the first set of Murray vs. Federer, Djokovic came out firing and took the first set 6-1, and that was after the match started at 1-all. While most players are trained to engage in crosscourt rallies with Nadal, either to his backhand or to his forehand, Djokovic was willing to move Nadal around by hitting many shots up the line. Indeed, Djokovic may have the best up the line shot in the game. By doing this, Nadal had to run a lot more than he had in previous matches, leading him to rushing some shots. Few players can make Nadal hit as many balls as Djokovic.
Nadal spent some of the match shadowing shots after missing, indicating he’s not particularly happy with the way he’s hitting the ball.
Much like the earlier semifinals, Nadal tightened up in the second set, but not without a great deal of work. Djokovic again had opportunities to break early in the second set, and it took a very competitive Nadal to stave off the break. Djokovic got a break at 2-all, but then seemed a bit nervous trying to get to a 4-2 lead. He gave Nadal a break point up 4-3 on his serve to 30-40 off a tentative rally where he basically pushed the ball and made an error, but then Djokovic played a hyper-aggressive point to get to deuce where he 2-3 amazing shots in a row, pushing the ball from one side to the other with ferocious precision. Djokovic eventually held to 5-3 with a precision pass on ad point.
Nadal held relatively easily to 5-4, and finally Djokovic closed it out at 6-4 in a tight game that went to deuce where he hit only 2 first serves. Nadal went for a big return and missed to give Djokovic an ad, and then Novak hit a good first serve, and hit a hard approach which Nadal netted to give Djokovic a victory that’s he’s wanted for a while.
By playing someone the caliber of Djokovic, Nadal discovered he still needs work to get back to the top. In particular, he didn’t return that well. He’d have Djokovic in trouble, some on second serve opportunities, only to hit them in the net. Djokovic tried something a bit interesting often hitting his groundstrokes inside the service line, but with enough pace that Nadal didn’t couldn’t attack.
Both players today turned around a trend. Federer had lost to Murray four times in a row. Djokovic had lost to Nadal 5 times in a row (including a Davis Cup tie). This leads to a final that no one really expected: Federer vs. Djokovic.
Djokovic has beaten Federer the last two times they’ve met, once on clay (in Rome) and once on hard courts (in Miami). Like Murray, Federer’s last victory over Djokovic was at the US Open.
Federer played his best match so far against Murray. His first serve is going to make it tougher on Djokovic. Djokovic, on the flip side, is a more aggressive groundstroker. Head-to-head, Federer has a pretty big lead over Djokovic, 7-4, however, 4 of the victories occurred prior to Djokovic getting to #3 in the world.
This could be a pretty good hitting match in the final. The final is fairly early at 12:30 and is being covered by CBS.
Fab Four
Already more than half way through 2009, this is the first time the top 4 seeds have reached the semifinals, and what bigger event to meet, short of a major, than the Cincinnati Masters. What was once the terrific trio of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic have now become the Fab Four, with Murray added to the mix.
Of the four, Murray has had the best hardcourt record. Of course, that consists of the Montreal results since all four chose to take time off after Wimbledon to train or tend to other matters. Last week, the top 8 seeds made the quarterfinals, but only one top 4 seed made it to the semifinals and that was Andy Murray.
Federer had a meltdown against Tsonga. Djokovic lost to Roddick. Nadal fell to del Potro.
Despite Murray’s tournament win, there are doubts whether he’s truly the man to beat. Nadal is still getting his legs and arms back into match shape. Federer always plays a bit iffy in the smaller tournaments, at least, since 2008. Djokovic is the only question mark, a guy that Murray has had success against, but someone people could believe that Murray can handle. This, despite his 6-2 record over Federer.
Murray has played most of his matches in the early afternoon, a nod to the British crowd who would prefer to watch his matches in prime time. There’s a second reason for Murray to want early matches. Murray has really improved his fitness, including his ability to handle the heat. He’d rather play his opponents in heat figuring his fitness would be much better.
It didn’t seem that way today as lucky loser, Julien Benneteau, took the first set, 6-4. Benneteau then broke early in the second set and was up 2-0. It didn’t look good for Murray. He and Benneteau then hit a 53 shot rally, one where Murray was mostly pushing the shots (when a top pro pushes, it’s to disrupt his opponents who can’t handle junk) and make amazing gets, primarily lobs. Finally, Benneteau messed up an overhead, a shot that has apparently given him trouble in the past.
From then on, Murray coasted to a win, taking the second set 6-3, and the third set 6-1.
Federer played long-time nemesis, Lleyton Hewitt. Federer has beaten Hewitt the last 12 times. Despite this streak, Hewitt is a tough competitor. However, Hewitt has been bothered by tendinitis and was hobbled in the match. This lead to a comfortable Federer win.
Djokovic played Simon in another quarterfinal. Simon had played a tough match against Davydenko. By the second set, Simon didn’t quite look like he wanted to win, as if an injury were bother him. Djokovic took the match in a close one, but one he was in control most of the way.
Nadal started playing better against Mathieu last night especially in the second set. Indeed, as much as Murray has played in the afternoon, Nadal has played in the evenings. Berdych is somewhat like Mathieu, except he’s a bigger guy. This means bigger serve, bigger forehand, and especially, bigger backhand. Berdych tried to attack Nadal, but Nadal’s first serve percentage was so high that he didn’t get many looks at a second serve.
When Berdych attacked the net, Nadal was finding ways to pass. You really have to hit a fantastic approach because Nadal whips his shots so fast, it’s hard to rattle him. Berdych had some success coming up the middle to cut the angles down, but he didn’t do it a ton. Clearly, this was Nadal’s best match since he returned to the hard courts.
That leaves dream matchups. In the first semis, Murray will play Federer. Federer will want to turn this rivalry around, but despite this blip against Benneteau, Murray has been playing the best tennis of the top 4. Federer hasn’t played a fantastic match in two weeks yet. He’s been workmanlike in his victories. Still, I think Federer might make things real interesting, so this will be a nice match.
On the other half, Djokovic and Nadal renew their rivalry. These two met three times during the leadup to the French, with Nadal winning each time. They met in the three Masters clay-court events: Monte Carlo, Rome, and Madrid with Madrid being Djokovic at his very best, having match points on his racquet, and yet still unable to get through.
Nadal has actually beaten Djokovic 5 times in a row, but the last time they met, which was last year in Cincinnati, Djokovic actually beat Nadal. What’s the difference this time? Several things. Last year, Djokovic was still playing pretty good. To be honest, he’s not playing that bad this year either. He’s had 49 match wins this year, second only to Murray (these are prior to Cincinnati, I believe). It’s just that he’s not winning the titles.
This is likely to be a great match. Nadal is finally hitting the ball well and if Djokovic can play really solid, we could see an epic match. This will be a real test to see how Nadal is really playing. Against Berdych, he was doing quite well. The tournament organizers have again given Nadal a night match, perhaps realizing that Nadal’s fitness may not be 100% yet. Despite being #3 in the world, they must still give him props when it comes to scheduling.
What a great way to lead into the US Open!
Rafael’s Return
Let’s rewind a few months back when Rafael Nadal was still the king of clay. At the time, he had won the Australian Open in five sets over Roger Federer who had a meltdown in the fifth set. Nadal was number 1 by a comfortable margin.
The clay season had gone pretty well. Novak Djokovic, not Roger Federer, appeared to be the guy that would give Nadal his biggest threat, taking Nadal to the wire in the Madrid semifinals and having played Nadal three times very close. Federer, for his part, engineered a straight set victory over Nadal which wasn’t nearly that convincing, especially given Nadal’s wearying escape from Djokovic’s superlative play.
Federer looked like his best years were behind him. Surely, Federer couldn’t beat Nadal over five sets, although some ardent fans believed Federer at least had some hope of breaking through. Nadal, by contrast, looked like he’d go into Paris and claim his sixth victory, to tie Borg, and in a sense, surpass him, because Nadal would win these 6 consecutively.
But all that changed when a tall rangy Swede named Robin Soderling took Nadal out. Nadal had chances to win, but Soderling kept applying pressure. Not bad for a guy that lost 6-1, 6-0 to Nadal only weeks earlier.
Team Nadal then proclaimed he had been suffering knee tendinitis for months. Indeed, in his match against Djokovic in Madrid, Nadal seemed a bit testy. The knee bands he wore were suddenly gone, as some wondered whether he thought the bands were making his knees worse, not better. Nadal skipped the grass court tuneups, then played an exhibition with Hewitt and Wawrinka, both losses. This convinced him that he needed rest. Nadal skipped Wimbledon and headed back to Mallorca with his uncle. Meanwhile, news slowly leaked that Nadal’s parents were splitting up.
Since then, Federer won the French, and the tears of despair at the Australian Open turned to tears of joy, as he held the trophy high, one that he wondered if he might never win despite his best efforts to become the second best clay court player in the world. Federer would take the energy from that win and play a convincingly solid Wimbledon and claim a sixth title, another marathon match, this time over his nemesis, Andy Roddick, who had retooled his game and pushed Fed to the brink, but not over.
And again, Nadal was out. He skipped the smaller hard court tournaments. However, so did the others. Federer, Murray, Djokovic. They all took a second break (outside of the traditional December break). Some chose to train (Murray), some to take care of family business (Federer), and some, who knows (Djokovic).
The fact of the matter was that Nadal did not forget how to play tennis. If anything, Nadal would simply be rusty, and use the hard court tournaments to test his knees. Nadal looked iffy in Montreal, but an iffy Nadal can beat most players. del Potro played nervously against Nadal in the first set, but clawed out a first set victory, and this seemed to relax the tall Argentine who would be a handful for Nadal even under the best of circumstances. del Potro proceeded to break Nadal three times in a decisive second set.
Nadal came to Cincinnati and still was not feeling his shots well. Nadal faced the stout Italian, Andreas Seppi, who pushed Nadal to two tiebreaks. Even a rusty Nadal still knows how to win.
Nadal played the Frenchman, Mathieu, last night. If you can characterize the French, and it’s generally unfair to say they are all the same, it’s that they have a flashy style of play. They generally know how to volley well. They seem better suited to faster surfaces than the slow clay of Roland Garros. Despite the plethora of French in the top 100, there’s no one as dominant as Nadal.
Richard Gasquet perhaps represents the typical Gaul as well as anyone. Highly talented, perhaps the best backhand in the game, yet lacking the mental strength to come through in tough matches. And then the deal with the woman at the party in Miami. But I digress.
Some felt Mathieu had the physical game to play a rusty Nadal tight, but might fold because he wouldn’t be able to play at the level he’s capable. And that was exactly what happened. Mathieu started with an early break, but eventually Nadal broke back and then broke once again to capture the first set. After that, the confidence that was missing in Nadal’s game was coming back. Although he struggled to move to his forehand side, which has always been a problem for him, he hit beautiful passes covering his backhand. Nadal said this was the best match he’d played since his return.
Still, it’s hard to gauge whether Nadal is fully back. The quick answer is no, he’s not 100% yet. Nadal knows this, and he’s not that concerned. This isn’t the US Open.
Up next for Nadal is Tomas Berdych. Berdych can also be an uneven player. However, he does two things better than Mathieu. He serves bigger and he has a bigger forehand. Mathieu really had problems with his first serve and that prevented him from being able to handle Nadal’s returns.
A quick preview of today’s matches. Federer will play Hewitt. Hewitt showed that, although he’s no longer number 1, nor is he even in the top 10, he can still play tennis. Although Querrey took a 6-2 set off of Hewitt, Hewitt bounced back and took the third set, 6-3. Although Federer has an outstanding record against Hewitt beating him the last 12 times they’ve met, Federer hasn’t been playing particularly solid. Ferrer, who recently retired against Nadal, pushed Federer to three sets. Hewitt plays a game much like Ferrer. Still, two things work in Roger’s favor. The confidence of knowing he’s beaten Hewitt 12 times in a row, and the belief he has in himself that he can play better as the tournament goes along. The one factor that goes against him: Federer is a much better best of 5 player and is vulnerable in a best of 3 match-up.
Last week, Federer had a meltdown against Tsonga. One benefit of this? He didn’t have to play Murray. Does Federer play this kind of long-term strategy where he avoids seeing players too often? We’ll see.
Of course, even if Federer wins, Murray has to do his part. Although he’s ranked number 2, Murray was seeded 3, mainly because the tournament had to produce a draw by Sunday and Murray wasn’t officially 2 until Monday. Murray will play Julien Benneteau. Outside of Juan Martin del Potro, who is sitting out this week, perhaps to work on fitness, Murray is playing the best tennis this hard court season. Of course, this is based on one tournament win, but he continues to have easy wins, one over Almagro and one over Stepanek. Benneteau should not be expected to give Murray a hard time today. The two have only met once, at Wimbledon in 2006, which Murray won in 4 sets.
Gilles Simon has had a pretty awful 2009 for a guy ranked in the top 10. The reason he’s stayed in the top 10 so long is because he won the majority of his matches after Wimbledon. Simon, however, chose to skip Indianapolis, where he was defending champ and play in Hamburg instead (it was demoted to an ATP 500 event), a tournament on clay. Simon lost early, again. It was expected that he’d lose to Davydenko who had a great post-Wimbledon tournament run–on clay. Even so, most expected Davydenko to win. Simon, however, seems to realize he’s got a bunch of points to defend, and beat Davydenko in three sets, and had chances to win the first set.
Simon’s the real wildcard. Djokovic has also had a mediocre year, by his standards. Even so, he’s nearly won more matches than anyone else this year (Murray may have eked him out by a match or two). The problem is winning tournaments and making a run at the majors. On paper, Djokovic should be too much for Simon, but Simon is one of those really steady guys that could keep up with Djokovic. Every match they’ve played has gone three sets, and Djokovic leads 2-1 in their head-to-head. Were Simon on a bit of a hot streak, this could be very tough. Right now, it’s hard to say because we don’t know if it’s good Simon playing or bad. Perhaps his win over Davydenko means that Simon is back to playing the kind of tennis that got him to the top 10.
Djokovic, however, needs a good win. Of all the players in the tournament, Djokovic probably needs the win most. Murray is playing pretty solid and has no worries. Nadal realizes he’s still coming back, so the win isn’t so critical for him. Roger only worries about the Slams. Djokovic looked like he was back in form during the clay season, and to be honest, had a decent grass season, but people expect a great deal more from him. If you ask a knowledgeable tennis watcher, she might tell you that del Potro looks like he has more upside than Djokovic. Even Roddick might be doing better (though the age difference is key).
As we head into the most exciting day of any tournament (the quarterfinals), we’ll see if the top 4 are playing top 4 tennis. This looks to be heading to a grand weekend.
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