My pick: Nadal, of course
Underdog pick: Robredo

Gonzalez d. Verdasco in 3 tight sets. Not too much of a suprise there but I would say Gonzo was a bit of an underdog.

Ferrer d. Robredo 6-3 6-4. To me, this is by far the biggest upset of the tournament. Not that Ferrer won, but the relatively routine score he did it by. Robredo hurt his hand in a tournament a few weeks back and has not caught his form since. Hopefully he can pull it back before the French starts up.

I know Ferrer has greatness in him, but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen it. Perhaps rather than ragging on Robredo, Ferrer has turned it back on? We’ll see in the next few weeks.

Stepanek has been playing some great ball this entire year. Seeding says this is a minor upset but realistically the difference between 16 and 19 in the world (and these two men right now) is almost nil. Good effort by the Worm verse Stan, but I’m quite suprised he didn’t take down Davydenko… I would have taken Radek or Stan to beat him, I’m wondering if Radek didn’t run out of gas.

I know it’s against Nadal who is a far superior opponent to Stan or Radek, but this is more the result I’ve come to expect from Davy. Absolutely no suprise here, the odds of an upset had to be 1 in ten or worse at this point in time. With a little research you could say “but Jason, Nicolai is 2 for 3 against Nadal, thats not that bad!” However Nadal retired due to knee injury in 08 against Davy, and the other win Davy has was on hard courts in Florida in 08… a MUCH different story than the slow soft clay of Barcelona.

Nice to see Ferrer back in a finals on clay, where he should be. Unfortunately even if he is getting his game back to where it once was… it was never better than Nadal. It wouldn’t be a huge suprise to see three sets here but my guess is Nadal wins in two pretty close ones.

For main draw singles, click here

1. Nadal

2. Verdasco (pictured)

3. Davydenko

4. Ferrer

5. Gonzalez

6. Robredo

7. Nalbandian

8. Wawrinka

9. Stepanek

10. Almagro

12. Andreev

15. Berdych

16. Lopez

My pick: Nadal, of course

Underdog pick: Robredo… (no I’m not going out on much of a limb there)

Into the round of 16, the seeds are holding strong and things are going to get pretty interesting. This is a VERY stron 500 event with just a few of the top guys taking a break (Fed, Novak, Murray). With those 3 gone, everyone else sees a great chance for a title……. ok I got ahead of myself, but at least a great shot at making it to the finals before getting out grinded by Rafa.

Good win for Rochus over Gasquet 6-1 6-7(2) 6-3. Rochus who has been around for quite a while has had by far his best results recently. I never would have given him much chance, but now he’s someone to be respected as a threat to seeds, however not quite yet a threat to win a tournament.

JC. Ferrero: Incredibly disappointing that he won the ATP 250 Casablanca and then goes down to Kunitsyn in straights here.

Players to watch:

Nadal.

Robredo: He’s won a plethora of clay court tournaments beating many of the top guys. He’s struggled the last couple weeks on hard, but he can and most likely will beat everyone other than Rafa today.

Verdasco: Obvious pick I suppose, but we’ve all seen moments of greatness recently from this guy. If the man playing Rafa in the finals isnt Verdasco or Robredo I’ll be a suprised.

Wawrinka: Pretty weak quarter here with a lot of good players who aren’t clay courters. I have no faith in Davydenko to beat anyone, so it’ll either be Stan the man or Radek who come up agains the the buzz saw in the semi’s.

For the main draw singles, click here

My Pick: Montanes
Underdog Pick of the century: Frederico Gil

One would think that the most painful thing in tennis has to be endured by those who reach the top, and start to fall due to age or injury or the likes. JC Ferrero was the world #1 in September of ’03 and is currently (until next weeks rankings come out) at a lowly 115. In a similar boat as Hewitt who is in the finals of Houston… he has to constantly be fighting battles both inside his head and that of others wondering; What happened? Am I too old? Can I ever win another title? When do I stop?

Most of us simply disregarde both of those past champions as if their time has come and gone. Granted they are winning in fields severly lacking the current greats of the game… but I love to see this sort of victory, all be it an ATP 250.

In reality going through Henescu 3 and 5, and Andreev 7-6 (9) 6-3 and then Serra in the finals… he did it through the toughest possible route in the tournament. Now I called a psuedo return on Hewitt… is it the same for Ferrero? Maybe.

The highest Seed Hewitt faced was ranked 73, the rest far below that. JC went through the rankings of 56, 38, 21, and 49. I’ll be the first to tell you that seeds don’t mean everything, but that is a pretty overwhelming difference. Lets see what happens in Monte Carlo!

For the singles main draw, click HERE

My Pick: Guillermo Canas

Underdog Pick: John Isner

To start, I’ll back up my picks. Some of you may be saying that picking a guy currently ranked 112 to win an ATP event is stupid. You may be right in that it’s a very VERY rare occurance, but Canas is no stranger to high level tennis and was once ranked 8th in the world. Most of you know that I’ll assume and also know he’s a clay court specialist.

Any tournament with Blake and Fish seeded 1 and 2 means the seeds are going to drop… so picking someone outside of the seeds can work. Picking Isner to win on clay… well he won 2 tough matches already in three sets… and he’s a huge server. On any surface if his serve is on, he is a threat. At nearly 7′ tall he is hitting from a tree stand and the height he can get on a kick serve will literally back someone up to the fence on the return. I’ve seen him bounce a hard kick serve over an eight foot back fence at UGA and thats hard court, imagine that on clay. Clay can certainly nuetralize the huge serve of Roddick… but with Johns placement and action that he can throw down I don’t think clay takes the same toll. Good luck John.

It should be noted that Lleyton Hewitt has rolled through his first two matches only losing 6 games. If he can take out Garcia-Lopez with that sort of efficiency it’d be hard not to jump on his bandwagon for this tournament.

More to come in the next day or two, but in the meantime check out the main draw HERE

1. Andreev (pictured)

3. Montanes

4. Hanescu

5. Serra

6. Gicquel

And after those massive ATP Tour 1000 events, we’re back down to a couple “rest weeks”. Those who aren’t in the favorable positions in rankings don’t get a rest, and GET to battle it out in a tournament without the big kids.

Brutal to pick the winner here but it is on red clay, so a pick of Montanes wouldn’t be too shabby. Andreev does consider himself a clay court player and looking at rankings (22) he seems to be a clear favorite.

Interesting note here… it’s been quite some time since the portuguese have had anything to be happy about, but Frederico Gil is putting an end to that! Impressive to knock off Alberto Martin and Ljubicic in the same tourmanet… if he knocks off Montanes as well I’ll tip back a Super Bock in his honor.

Matchups to watch:

Hanescu vs. Ferrero: JC trying to make a comeback, winning this 250 event would put him off on the right track… but I’d take Hanescu to win this one.

Montanes vs. Gil: I’m not sure what the odds are in Vegas on this one, but I have to go with Montanes. That being said I would have picked Gil to lose in both of his last two rounds as well… so how far can he go?

For the main draw, click HERE

Miami – ATP 1000 event (2nd of the year)

1. Nadal
2. Federer
3. Djokovic
4. Murray
5. Roddick
6. Del Potro
7. Simon
8. Verdasco
9. Monfils
10. Tsonga
11. Ferrer
12. Gonzalez
13. Blake
14. Nalbandian
15. Robredo
16. Wawrinka

My Pick: Nadal
Underdog Pick: Robredo

Well I’ll admit when I’m wrong. The last person I would have picked to lose before the Semi’s was Nadal… even though he did have the toughest draw. Big congrats to Del Potro, huge win… HUGE win.

Del Potro d. Nadal 6-4 3-6 7-6(3)

I had the good fortune of watching this match thanks to Comcast sports net. Nadal certainly wasn’t on his game through most if it, getting down a set and a break 2-0 before he became Nadal. If you’re someone who enjoys ANY sport and competitor you have to be a fan of this guy. Playing poorly and getting dominated, he hits one decent forehand that ends up winning the point at 0-2 in the second and gets fired up… somehow finding a way to get the break and the momentum. Nadal was on cruise control until he led 3-0 in the third where he apparently decided he wanted to be more aggressive. The errors that he had avoided for the last 9 games crept back in and gave Del Po a breath. All in all a good win by Del Po and a poor shotmaking performance by Nadal, but it’s hard to say he ever mentally dropped. I’ve seen him make that decision thirty times and he’s always been able to do it. This loss in my opinion doesn’t set him back in the least, and may be good for his knees to not play to the finals of every tournament he enters.

Murray d. Verdasco 6-1 6-2

I didn’t see the match, but that’s a pretty shocking loss for Fernando. We all remember Verdasco disappointing Murray in 5 sets in the Aussie open (and enjoyed it) but clearly a different story yesterday. These two have a history of extremely (full of breakers) close matches and absolute blowouts, with no “routine” wins. Apparently the trend continues.

Djokovic d. Tsonga 6-3 6-4

This was a very disappointing match for me, I almost wish I hadn’t seen. Djokovic AGAIN was struggling with the heat and physical fatigue, for perhaps the 20th time of his career. Djokovic will never be a dominant tennis player (top 2) in my opinion because he can’t make it through hot weather! I’m confidnet he’ll win another grand slam or two but the conditions have to be perfect. It was only about 85 in Miami and he was doneski! That was fairly disappointing, but even more so was the mindless play of Tsonga. While Tsonga was outplayed in the first and down a break in the second, it was very clear even early on in the second that Novak was hurting. T responded by missing a plethora of routine second serve returns and going for outright winners early on in points instead of working Novak around. I can’t imagine what was going through his head other than that he smelled blood in the water and wanted to take advantage. Apparently he needs to go into the video history log and find out how Roddick beat Novak at the Aussie Open for future reference. I’ve played dozens of people who were having physical problems due to the heat and/or cramping and the plan is NOT to go for outright winners while in bad position and miss easy return of serves! Had Tsonga had the mental strength of a small rodent he would have put some balls in play and ran Novak into his inevitable tap out. This loss should really, really hurt.

Federer d. Roddick 6-3 4-6 6-4

This has and always will be a terrible matchup for Roddick. Federer loves people who are big shot makers and play with pace. Roddick was very much on his game, and Fed was just… better. The trouble here is if Roddick is absolutely on fire, it plays right into Feds wheelhouse and will still lose. Roddick in my opinion needs to come up against Fed on a clay court and be willing to just make ball after ball and bore the heck out of him (like Murray and Nadal do so effectively). Obviously this is plan D for Roddick and isn’t coming out of his bag very often (nor should it) but Plan A-C results in a loss in this matchup… as you can tell by his 2-16 record. To be honest his chance to win now against Fed is greater than ever if he can turn this into a physical battle as I believe Andy is in much better shape than Roger right now.

Up Coming Matchups

Djokovic vs. Federer

Federer leads the series 7-2, and although almost always the edge should go to Fed, this one could be close. I still don’t think Roger is in proper shape to play the game he was so dominant with… but on the other hand Novak should have been out of the tournament last round due to being unable to withstand a mild heat. It’s supposed to be 88 degrees today in Miami but a bit cloudy and windy, so who knows what’ll happen with the “quit factor”. Edge to Roger but should be a battle.

Del Potro vs. Murray

First of all Murray should pay Del Potro for knocking off Nadal and giving him a legit chance to win this title. These guys are of similar age and have played numerous times as juniors… but twice professionally. Murray got the better of Del Po both times, but keep in mind DP has been having a stronger year than ever and is still working to find his form. Del Po comes into the match with HUGE confidence after beating the clear world #1 last round in a mental battle. The problem is after going into a third set breaker with Nadal, who has enough energy to go the distance against another quick grinder? I’m guessing that DP doesn’t have it in him. Murray cruised to victory last round and although usually willing to quit at the drop of a dime, this opportunity to win a 1000 event seems too much for even him to pass. Murray wins.

Ill be posting again before the finals and would love to hear your predictions! Also… if anyone saw the Del Po upset over Nadal, please let me know how and buy me a lottery ticket. Thanks
-Jason

Tsonga is a great player… but as far as whether or not he can break into the coveted top 4 in tennis in the next year: I Sell