Djokovic-Nadal Rome final postponed due to rain

The women’s final preceded the men’s.  The men’s had been scheduled for around 4 PM in Rome.  The women started a little less than two hours earlier.

For a while, it appeared that the women’s match would finish routinely.  Li Na had won a close first set, 6-4.  She was comfortably up 4-0 with a chance to get to 5-0.  But, this is a women’s match, and the mental game plays as important a role as the physical.  That, and the fact that women clobber the ball every chance they get.  Rarely, do you get these up the middle rallies that male players engage as a kind of testing of the waters, before they go for bigger shots.  That’s because men can chase down all but the most well-struck of shots.  Women, by contrast, can hit a good solid angle shot and that is likely to be a winner.  Women don’t have the footspeed to chase it down, nor do they have the kind of violent topspin Rafa has to air out a shot without being defensive.

Sharapova would take the next six games in a row.  Li Na, not noted for her strong mental toughness, continued to wilt in the third set, down a break, 4-1, before she was able to tie the match at 4-all.  Throughout the second and third set, helicopters were flying, more interested in the nearby football matches, the rain was falling, first a drizzle, then something heavier.  Scores went to 5-all.  At one point, the score had reached deuce and baritone voiced, Kader Nouni, had been told to suspend play.  He asked if it would be OK, but also said, if the two women wanted to play on, he would let them play on, which they did.

Maria Sharapova had taken one point and slammed it wide.  She found herself match point down, when she hit a hard crosscourt forehand which Li Na lobbed up.  Sharapova took a big swing and won the point, and eventually the game.  When the match reached 6-all,  the rains were heavy. and play was suspended for two hours.  Play resumed  around 6 PM.  Sharapova again took a lead in the tiebreak, but Li Na came back, and eventually, Sharapova won the match.

At this point, there was still a question whether the men’s final would play.  Despite the women’s final having been played, it was a tiebreak, only needed a few minutes to complete.  The men’s match could go to marathon lengths.  After all, Nadal and Ferrer played a 90 minute set in the semifinals.

Also, the match would be played at night and potentially delayed and on wet courts.  Djokovic, at the very least, might have preferred the clay be less heavy with the rain.

The match is scheduled for noon, Rome time, and is the last event most of the top players will play prior to the French Open which will be played in a week’s time.

The Federer Gambit: How Federer could be the #2 seed at the French Open

If you were to place a bet on who had a better chance to beat Rafa on clay, Djokovic or Federer, who would you pick?  Federer has only beaten Rafa on clay sparingly.  In Hamburg some number of years ago, and in Madrid, during its inaugural start.  He may have another win here or there, but Rafa has been Rafa because he’s beaten Fed on clay.  It’s even odds for Federer on any surface outside of grass or fast indoors.

Because of the Olympics, the ranking points are dropping prior to the tournament instead of being replaced after the tournament ends.  Thus the points that everyone had earned in Rome last year, including Djokovic’s winner points and Rafa’s finalist points have all dropped off.  This is one reason Federer was able to move ahead of Rafa (since he had so few points drop off due to an early loss).

Here’s the deal.  Roger stands 325 points ahead of Rafa.  Should Djokovic win, he’ll get 1000 points, and Rafa will get 600 points.  Federer, after losing in the semis, would get 360 points.  The difference between Rafa and Roger would be 240 points.  Given the top 4 take the week off before the start of the French Open, that would leave Roger at number 2.  Now, it’s no guarantee that Djokovic will win, but if he does, Roger would be in pretty solid shape heading into the French.

He would have to hope for one more bit of luck and that is for Rafa to end up in Djokovic’s side of the draw.  If Djokovic and Roger are #1 and #2, it prevents something that has occurred numerous times except a handful of times (including this year’s Australian Open) which is Djokovic and Roger being in the same half of the draw.  Indeed, in all of 2011, Djokovic and Federer were in the same half of the draw.

To be fair, the odds of Roger meeting Rafa are the same regardless of whether he number 2 or number 3 in the seeding, and Roger may still not avoid meeting both of them, though it now becomes a possibility to avoid one of the two should Rafa end in Djokovic’s half.

Of course, this could all be moot if Rafa beats Djokovic and regains the number 2 ranking plus momentum heading into the French Open.  But it’s something that hasn’t happened to Roger, nor Rafa, in some time.

(Rome, SF) Djokovic downs Federer to set up another meeting with Nadal in the finals

Ever since the US Open, Roger Federer has been playing some solid tennis.  Indeed, even if you include the US Open, Roger Federer came within a hair of beating Djokovic.  Only a go-for-broke return by Djokovic followed by a dig-out return and a Federer slap shot that clipped the net causing the ball to fall out gave Djokovic enough to squeeze out of the trap Federer had set for him.  Federer would go on to win titles in Basel and Paris and defend his year-end title.  His push at the end of the year was meant to give him some chance to reach the top of the sport.

In 2012, Federer reached the semis of the Australian Open, losing to Rafael Nadal in four sets, but bounced back to win Rotterdam, Dubai, and Indian Wells, and, oh yes, Madrid.  By contrast, Federer didn’t win his second title in 2011 until Basel over a month after the US Open.  He’s won as many titles in 2012 as of last week as he had all of 2011.

Much of this has come with an improved serve that is as accurate as ever and a solid backhand.  Also, Federer does as well as anyone to beat the players he needs to beat, even players as formidable as Tsonga and Ferrer and Berdych.

Despite these accomplishments, the proof is beating players like Rafa and Nole.  This time, Fed was in the evening match against Djokovic playing under lights, something Roland Garros has yet to introduce due to late sunsets in Paris.

The first thing that hurt Federer was his first serve percentage.  Normally Roger serves in the 60% range, and can be as high as 70%.  However, he spent most of the match, especially in the first set closer to 40%.  This gave Novak Djokovic, the best returner of the game, a chance to take a lead in the point.  Federer was left defending his backhand and kept in extended rallies where he had trouble dominating.  Djokovic does such a good job keeping even and not falling behind.  Even when he does, Djokovic can pull out a awesome shot like his down the line winner off a down the line aggressive shot by Federer.

Djokovic got a break early on.  You would see Federer get into a long rally, then go for an aggressive shot that would land out, and this happened time and again.  Djokovic secured a second break to take the first set, 6-2.

In the second set, Djokovic got ahead a break ahead again.  It took Federer almost to the end of the set to string together good points where he could get the break back and push the match into a tiebreak.  However, Djokovic played a few good points and ultimately secured the win.

The question, concerning Djokovic, prior to the start of the tournament was how his game was.  Djokovic made it to the finals of Monte Carlo, but the death of his grandfather just before the start of the tournament left his game a bit awry, and this lead to a lot of errors in the final.  Nadal was able to secure a win after seven consecutive losses.

Djokovic had only one “bad” match which was a set loss to Monaco, but he rebounded to win sets 2 and 3 easily, then he had a solid win over both Tsonga and Federer.  It feels like Djokovic is back to the form that he had in 2011, but back then, he was on a roll, and that kind of winning breeds confidence.  That was especially important because Nadal was actually having a great 2011.  Nadal reached the finals at Indian Wells, at Miami, at Madrid, and at Rome.  Each time, he lost to Djokovic.

Djokovic, on the other hand, has had numerous losses in 2012.  He’s lost to Isner, to Murray, to Nadal (in Monte Carlo), and to Tipsarevic.  However, I feel that he’s not that far off.  The big question is whether this Djokovic is now ready to handle Nadal.  Nadal, to be fair, didn’t win a title until Monte Carlo and that dates back to his win in the French Open.  Djokovic had a lot to do with that.

At this point, I think this win means a lot more to Djokovic than it does to Nadal.  For Nadal, this win would get him back to being confident and heading to number 1.  To Djokovic, he wants to get that mental edge, and to prove to Nadal that the Monte Carlo loss was due to his personal loss.  Now, Nadal has also worked hard to figure out how to beat Djokovic, so it’s hard to what contributed more the Nadal’s win.  Nadal gave a gracious statement thanking Djokovic for “letting him win”.  So the question is whether Nadal has found the right formula.

Djokovic wants to show that his poor play in that match was due to emotions, not due to Nadal’s good play.  Indeed, Djokovic seemed to have errors earlier in the rallies.  It’s not that Djokovic was awful, but that historically, he has been able to deal with longer rallies against Nadal.  That will be key tomorrow.

I’d say slight edge to Nadal since he’s been doing well on clay all year, but I think Djokovic has it to beat him again.

Roger Federer becomes number 2 after Madrid win

Given how often Rafa and Novak were competing against each other, they seemed so far ahead of everyone that no one would catch them, but Federer had an outstanding end of the year where he won Basel, Paris, and the year-end championship.  Federer continued to have a solid 2012, starting off better than he has in a long time with wins in Rotterdam, Dubai and Indian Wells.  Federer struggled to win titles last year until after the US Open.

If Roger maintains the number 2 slot, then he is guaranteed not to play Novak Djokovic until the finals, and if he’s lucky, he might not face Nadal either.  Due to the way the calendar has fallen this year, results are dropping off prior to the tournament being played.  Thus, the Rome results are already off.  Rafa was runner-up and lost 600 points.  Federer lost in the third round, so he lost only 90 points.  This 510 point boost, plus Roger picking up 1000 points to Rafa’s 90 (a net gain of 910 points) means Federer has, prior to Rome, picked up nearly 1500 points.

However, he only has about a 300 point lead over Rafa and would have to do as well as Rafa to stay number 2 into Paris (neither player is likely to play between Rome and Paris, despite the chance for number 2).  That could be tough as Rafa could easily win or be runner up at Rome.

So Rome becomes critical to Roger staying at number 2.  We’ll see how Djokovic and Nadal recover.  Because the draw was made prior to Federer becoming number 2, Djokovic and Federer are in the same half of the Rome draw.

Who’s in form heading into Rome?

Rome is the last big tournament where many of the names expecting to contend for honors at Roland Garros will play.  Let’s just say that 2012 is significantly different from 2011.  2011 was the year of Novak, and the question then was “Can Novak win on clay?”, and the answer was yes, but.  He beat Nadal for the first time on clay and did it back-to-back.  The Rome win, in particular, was unexpected.  While Madrid is played in altitude and is considered relatively quick for clay (although more so this year than last), Rome is considered a traditional slow-ish surface, closer to Paris.

Djokovic was pushed to the brink with Andy Murray threatening to derail the win streak.  Murray had a break to win the match only to make a few too many errors and let Djokovic claw his way back in.  You could even sense that Djokovic was resigned to his loss.  But once he got that break, he seemed to say “Well, if he’s not going to win, then I want to win”.

Federer would ultimately derail the Djokovic train, at least for a short while, as he beat the Serb in four sets in the semifinals of the French Open.

Heading into the French Open, Djokovic was clearly dominant, with Nadal playing second fiddle, Murray having his best season on clay (after another dismal early American swing at Indian Wells and Miami) and Federer playing reasonably solid, but appearing to deal with another player that had passed him by.

This year, the scene is much less clear.  Nadal had, once again, been on a huge title drought.  Prior to Monte Carlo 2012, Nadal had not won a title since the French Open in 2011, or almost a full year since he had won a title.  Much of that was due to Djokovic, but also due to the rather sparing schedule Nadal has played this year.  In particular, Nadal has only played 7 tournaments this year.  He has played all Masters 1000 events, the only Slam so far, and Doha and Barcelona.  Normally, Nadal plays one additional tournament right around Rotterdam (in February), but due to the Olympic schedule, he’s cut back more than usual.

This period of time is usually Nadal’s heaviest as he plays 5 clay events: Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, and Paris.  Last year he was winner, winner, runner-up, runner-up, and winner.  An outstanding run.  This year, he’s been winner, winner, third round.  He lost, for the first time, to Fernando Verdasco, and much like Djokovic, threatened not to play Madrid if it was played on blue clay.  However, of the top 4, Nadal seems to peak the best, so at this point, I’m not worried.  We’ll see how he plays at Rome.

Last year, Federer did not have a great clay season.  However, that seems more typical of Federer these days.  Some years he’ll play Monte Carlo (which is optional for the top 30 player–the only optional Masters 1000 title) and some years not.  Last year he played, but lost to Melzer.  He reached the semis of Madrid (his best clay event since they switched from Hamburg to Madrid) and lost in the third round of Rome to Richard Gasquet.  Despite a ho-hum clay season, Federer peaked at the French, upset Djokovic, and reached the finals, only to lose to Nadal again.

This year, Federer is played as well as he has at the start of the year in quite some time.  He played Rotterdam for the first time in a long time and beat Juan Martin del Potro.  He beat Andy Murray in the finals of Dubai even though Murray was talking about making a step up the ranks.  He then won Indian Wells before playing a rather lackluster match to lose to Andy Roddick in Miami, perhaps in an effort to keep himself healthy.  This year, Federer skipped Monte Carlo.  Madrid was his first tournament back and he won the tournament when both Djokovic and Nadal lost early.  Federer has paced himself well, but did end up with some luck given his two main rivals lost before he had a chance to play them.

Even so, Federer is playing pretty good tennis.  At Madrid, Federer experimented with serving and volleying on clay which he used to great effect.  He didn’t use it much against Berdych, but it wasn’t that bad either.  His backhand seems to be better than usual.  His serve is solid.  Still, his aggressiveness leads to inconsistencies in patches, though he’s managed to weather the storm.  In terms of play, you have to say Federer is in the best shape.  Even so, this may just be Nadal and Djokovic saving themselves up for Paris.

Last year, Djokovic had a great run.  He skipped Monte Carlo, opted to play Belgrade, which he won, then won Madrid and Rome and lost in the semis of the French.  Djokovic clearly improved his level in 2011, but in general, Djokovic is a very solid clay court player, up in the top 3 of clay courters.  His performance on clay separates him from Murray and allows Djokovic to keep ahead of his Scottish rival.

This year, Djokovic is not playing nearly as well.  He’s had far more losses now than last year.  Part of that may be due to lack of focus.  Part of it is likely due to worries about his health.  Djokovic’s slide occurred right after he won the US Open.  He slipped a notch either due to fatigue or injury and never quite recovered.  He did manage to muster enough to win the Australian Open and win two marathon five setters.  The match against Nadal, in particular, he had to fight off a break to win the fifth, and that was after Nadal started to up his level of aggression to take the third and fourth sets.  Still, Djokovic has had a series of losses this year including Isner, Murray, and Nadal.  The Monte Carlo loss, in particular, broke a 7-win streak Djokovic had over Nadal.  To be fair, Djokovic’s grandfather, who he was close with, had passed away.  The team decided to play on, but Djokovic withdrew from his home tournament, then lost early to Tipsarevic in Madrid.

The fourth-ranked player has been pretty quiet so far.  Andy Murray again lost early in Indian Wells, but this time rebounded in Miami to reach the finals where he lost to Djokovic.  He lost to Berdych in Monte Carlo, which isn’t all that bad given how well Berdych is playing on clay this year.  Murray decided to play Barcelona this year, but was pummeled by Raonic, not so much in score (it was close), but in power.  He skipped Madrid due to an injury, but is ready to play Rome.  Murray has played solid on clay, but not nearly as well as he did last year.  Again, with this being an Olympic year, the decision to try to win (esp. on his weakest surface) might be impacted.   Although Murray started off well with Lendl, much like Roddick when he switched coaches, there appears to be a period of good success.  Lendl will really earn his paycheck if he can do well with Murray in this part of the year especially since Murray doesn’t seem like he’s taken that many steps forward to his goals (at least, compared to Federer).

And that leaves us the dark horses.  These would include David Ferrer, Juan Martin del Potro, and Tomas Berdych.  All three have played solid tennis.  Berdych appears to be the most in-form, but his game can be so up-and-down.  When he’s on, he can strike the ball with ruthless efficiency, but pundits would probably say del Potro is the steadier of the two big hitters.  del Potro has yet to move his game to its fearsome level back when he won the US Open.  He appears to be playing quite a bit more passively than he used to.  I don’t know if that is really happening (I think it is) or whether everyone else has adjusted to his game.

Outside those three, there are players like Raonic or Isner who possess a big enough game to hit players off the court.  It’s too bad Verdasco is so up and down because when he plays well, he looks awesome, but those happen in very infrequent spurts.  You also have other steady players like Simon and Tipsarevic.  Tsonga hasn’t had that solid of a season and Monfils has been rather invisible.  Having said that, one often sees on clay surprise players that makes it deep.  In years past, it has been Soderling (twice) and Melzer.  Soderling has now been out about as long as del Potro has been.  He last played a match in Bastad on clay shortly after Wimbledon, and promised to play shortly after the Australian Open, but hasn’t played yet, otherwise, we might be talking about Soderling.

This year feels a bit like 2010 which was a ho-hum year for the top 4 except for Nadal except this go-around, Federer seems in better form than usual, Nadal is kinda-almost there, Djokovic needs to recover in time for the French, and Murray is a big unknown right now.

Federer reaches 20th Masters win with 3-set victory over Berdych in Madrid

It wasn’t a pretty match, by any means.  There seemed to be a lack of rhythm and flow, and thus, it was one player striking the ball well, and the other not as well, and vice versa.

Berdych started off the match strong with an early break and rode that break to a 7=5 first set win.  Federer then had an early break in the second set, only to have Berdych break back, before he broke to win the second set.  Federer was once again up a break in the third set.  That break was due to a 0-40 lead Federer reached, followed by 3 aces by Berdych, followed by 2 double faults to give up the break.  But as he tried to serve it out, Berdych broke again.  Federer then broke once more, reaching 0-40 once again, before Berdych won 2 points, then Federer got an error to take his 20th Masters 1000 title.

Final score: 36 75 75.

Federer now has as many Masters 1000 titles as Nadal with 20 each.

It appears as if the ATP points are now taken off prior to the event starting (as opposed to replacing it at the last minute), thus the Madrid points were removed prior to Madrid being played.  However, this may be due to Madrid being shifted some in the calendar.  In any case, Federer should close the gap between him and Nadal for second in the world.

Next week, the tour heads to Rome, the last major clay event prior to the French Open.

(Madrid, SF) Federer reaches Madrid finals with win over Tipsarevic

With the favorites, Nadal and Djokovic, out of the tournament (Murray opted to skip due to injury), it was up to Federer to rescue the tournament.  Federer had an easy win over Tipsarevic, relying once again on some aggressive net-charging, a strategy he seemed to abandon when serve-and-volley fell out of style.  While he wasn’t fully committed to the strategy, he came to net a lot more than usual.  Federer’s aggression had Tipsarevic surprised.  The Serb never looked that comfortable.

Federer wins 62, 63.

In the finals, he’ll meet Tomas Berdych who has shown an affinity for clay.  He is one of the few players that uses his power to outhit his opponents, but uses the clay to get more time.  He beat del Potro in two tiebreaks.  Apparently, some overrules (later shown to be correct) of very close calls gave Berdych an edge and left del Potro angry.

Federer will be favored to win, but Berdych is dangerous enough to give Federer some trouble.

(Madrid, QF): Djokovic upset by Tipsarevic while Federer moves on to semifinals

Tournament organizers must have crossed their fingers for a Djokovic-Nadal final.  When Nadal fell to countryman, FernandoVerdasco, organizers must have hoped that the Federer-Djokovic semi would have to do.  Only Djokovic didn’t accommodate.  Like Nadal, Djokovic had complained about the surface.  And like Nadal, who lost to a countryman, Djokovic also lost to a countryman in Janko Tipsarevic.  Djokovic had a chance to break back as Tipsarevic attempted to serve for the match.  Despite the 15-40 lead and one more break point, Tipsarevic hung tough and won.

Roger Federer has to feel pretty good.  He beat David Ferrer for the 13th time in a row in a 64 64 win.  Should he manage to win the tournament, he may get quite close to overtaking Rafa at number 2 in the world.  Rafa will lose finalist points while Federer stands to gain quite a few points should he win.

Verdasco could not follow up his victory over Nadal with a dent in Berdych’s game.  The rangy Czech steamrolled Verdasco in an easy 61, 62 blowout.  He next faces Juan Martin del Potro who beat Dolgopolov in two close sets.

[Madrid, 3R] Verdasco upsets Nadal, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5

Apparently, the late Vitas Gerulaitis once said “No one beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row” when he claimed a victory over Jimmy Connors.  In those days, it was hard to find head-to-head stats, so Vitas may have been guessing how many times Connors had beaten him.  In any case, good friend, Bjorn Borg did beat him at least 17 times in a row.

Fernando Verdasco must have felt like Vitas did.  He had lost to Rafael Nadal thirteen times in a row.  His best chance was probably 2009 Australian Open when Verdasco upset Murray in the quarters then pushed Nadal to the brink in a five-set marathon of heavy hitting.  Verdasco would go on to have a very good 2009 and half of 2010 before fading once again.  Few people beat Nadal on clay, and numbers suggest Nadal was off his game for some reason.  Nadal usually wins a large percentage of first serves despite lacking a booming serve, but stats say he won barely half his first serves and under half of his second serves.

It’s rare for Nadal to lose on clay.  He’s lost less than 20 times on clay and most of that happened early in his career.  He’s complained about the blue surface, but it may be wise for Nadal to lose, despite his record.  With the Olympics coming up, pressing for a win at Madrid may not be wise.  Even so, Nadal was up two breaks in the third and could still not secure the victory, which is unusual for Nadal.

Murray is already skipping Madrid due to an injury, so he seems to be opting to save himself.

Other results.  The French didn’t have a good day.  Dolgopolov upset Tsonga in three sets while Berdych crushed Monfils in straight sets.  del Potro also had a comfortable win over Cilic.

Federer played yesterday, but will play against Gasquet today (as this is being written, he’s on court).

del Potro wins a leadup to the big clay events

Three tournaments were played on clay this week in the lead up to Madrid, which will be played on blue clay.  Madrid and Rome are two Masters 1000 events and are back-to-back events.

The three events are Munich, Estoril, and Belgrade.  Let’s start with Belgrade.  Normally, this is the Novak Djokovic tournament.  He has won it a few times, but this year, due to the death of his grandfather, he gave his own tournament a pass.  So did many other Serbs, like Janko Tipsarevic and Viktor Troicki.

The finalists were Andreas Seppi, the Italian who was second seed, and unseeded Benoit Paire.  Seppi won this pretty easily 6-3, 6-2.  Paire is relatively young at age 22.

The most competitive of the tournaments was Estoril.  Juan Martin was the defending champ and had a surprisingly easy time over Richard Gasquet, 64 62.  The question is, can del Potro make a strong move into the top ten.  He’s steady, got good power, but lacks the intimidation he used to have that made him a threat to win Slams.

In Munich, local favorite Phillipp Kolschreiber won a close match over Marin Cilic, 76, 63.  Cilic was seen as a player that could break into the top 5, but hasn’t played well in quite some time.

Next week, three of the four top players in the world are entered including Nadal, fresh off his Monte Carlo and Barcelona wins, Novak Djokovic, who has not played since Monte Carlo, and Roger Federer, who also has not played since Miami, skipping Monte Carlo which is an optional Masters 1000.