Aussie Open Men’s Final: Djokovic wills his way to win over Nadal in five set marathon 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5 to win third Australian Open and third consecutive Slam

Boris Becker once said the fifth set wasn’t about tennis, it was about heart.  There seems no better example than the fifth set of this marathon match that nearly edged six hours.

The fifth set seemed like one of those Rocky movies with Rocky faced against an inhuman opponent, and both players took punches and took punches and how both fought until they could fight no more.  Djokovic seemed the worse for wear, and Nadal seemed like he would come through, looking like he was a bit fresher, and yet Djokovic hung tough on his serve, then managed to get a break on Nadal’s serve to 6-5, and while Djokovic looked like he might win the deciding game, Nadal kept fighting, bringing it back to deuce, and Djokovic fought and took the points he needed, and with a net-clip and an inside out winner by Djokovic, a yell that signaled all the relief of coming through such effort.

And it’s not like Nadal didn’t try.  Nadal was trying to hit harder, be more aggressive, chase down every shot he could, and keep in the match as much as possible.  The match was determined by the slimmest of margin, by one man’s will barely topping another man.

Andy Murray said he found similarities between boxing and tennis and this match was perhaps as much boxing match as tennis.

Up until this point, Djokovic looked like he had found a rhythm, a way to push Nadal around the court.  The first set was sketchy as Djokovic, who had not practiced since his win over Murray, had trouble connecting on shots.  He was hitting a bit long, or a bit wide.  This allowed Nadal to get an early break, and one had to wonder whether Djokovic had the energy to complete the match.  It wasn’t long before Djokovic got the break back.  However, it didn’t last.  Nadal broke Djokovic again to take the first set.

Despite this lead, Djokovic started making progress.  Rather than play really long points, which there were some, Djokovic looked like he want to make Nadal run, and at times, the strategy worked to humming perfection as Djokovic would strike crosscourt deep to Nadal’s backhand, and Nadal would hit a ball deep up the middle, and Djokovic would power the ball inside out, often for a winner.  He would take the second set, 6-4, then continue the pressure, 6-2.

It seemed only a matter of time before Djokovic would close out the fourth, and be that juggernaut.  But Nadal did what he does best.  He fought to stay in the match.  The score was tied, 1-al, then 2-all, then 3-all, then at 3-4, Nadal got down 0-40, but somehow pulled himself out of that game, as the rain started to pour.  The roof was closed in ten minutes, and play resumed, as the match continued.  Again, 5-all, then 6-all.

In the tiebreak, Nadal got to a minibreak early, but Djokovic took two points off Nadal’s serve.  Djokovic couldn’t carry the lead, and lost one mini-break.  Eventually, Nadal was on serve 6-5 in the tiebreak, and Djokovic, in an effort to end the point quickly hit a bit long, and took the tiebreak.

The momentum carried to the fifth set with Nadal breaking for a 4-2 lead, but immediately gave the break back, and two were even until the end, when Djokovic got a final break and fought hard to serve out the match.

Aussie Open Men’s Final Preview

It’s the third Slam in a row that world number 1, Novak Djokovic, will face world number 2, Rafael Nadal.

When the curtains closed on 2011, the big questions were “Is Novak healthy” and “Is Rafa mentally ready?”.  Murray knew the answers to these questions.  He was asked what he thought of his competition prior to the Australian Open hearing Federer’s back was injured or Nadal lost in Abu Dhabi and Doha.  He said not to believe it.  These players may not look like they are ready to go even two weeks before a Slam, but they always show up ready to play a Slam.  Even Rafa’s peculiar knee injury happened before his first match, not on the first day, and he recovered from it just fine.  And Djokovic’s shoulder or his back?  Apparently no big deal.

Going into the semifinals, Djokovic had bent over due to perhaps a hamstring pull.  He was breathing heavy.  Ivan Lendl, Murray’s new coach, said don’t you believe it.  He’s clutching, he’s gasping, but he’s running, and that’s the key.  Don’t let Djokovic’s problems worry you.  He runs, so he’s fine.  Martina commented throughout the third set of the Djokovic-Murray encounter that Djokovic might not finish the match.  By the fifth set, she changed her tune and called the Djoker a “drama king”.

Most pundits would put the clear advantage to Nadal.  He had an extra day’s rest.  Djokovic had to play nearly five hours to win.  And yet, the last time they did this, in the 2009 Australian Open final, it was Federer, the fresher of the two, that collapsed due to not physical fatigue, but mental fatigue and Rafa won in five sets.  To be fair, Federer tends to play quick matches, but still, a tough five setter against Verdasco is a tough five setter.  Rafa said that it was no comparison between that match and his four set win over Federer.

The big question is still: is Djokovic fine?  He’s survived dire situations like this before, including the last marathon match he had against Murray (in the Rome 2011 final) and against Federer (a five set win in the 2011 US Open semi) and came back to handle Rafa.  The one difference, if anything, is Rafa’s commitment during the off-season to beating Djokovic.

It’s hard to tell what Rafa has been up to.  He’s playing solid tennis, that’s for sure.  But so is Djokovic.  All of a sudden, Djokovic is popping 110 mph second serves.  Where did that come from?

With not much to go on, I have to say that Djokovic has the edge.  At the very least, he has the six consecutive matches against Nadal.  Perhaps no such dominance has come since, oh, maybe Sampras over Agassi.  Ivan Lendl, ranked lower than McEnroe, once beat him seven times in a row.  McEnroe got scared playing Lendl.  A few good passes, and Lendl was trying to beat Lendl from the backcourt, a battle which he frequently placed second.  McEnroe finally went back to his instinct, buoyed by Grand Slam champ, Don Budge, and charged at net, no matter how many times he missed, and he began a dominance over Lendl once again.

Except, Djokovic hasn’t really forced Nadal to do much differently than before.  It’s not like you can scare Nadal to play serve and volley.  It’s not even entirely clear what Nadal did wrong.  Nadal can only follow the advice he gave Andy Murray.  Play more aggressively.  The question is whether that strategy will yield good results.  One reason Rafa does play defense is because it works.  He plays aggressive, but not as risky and only goes for big shots if he’s pressed.

As Djokovic said in the post-match interview, it’s going to be a battle.  Djokovic and Nadal rarely play short matches.  Expect long rallies.

Given a strong feeling either way, I have to go with the guy whose on the win streak, and that’s Novak Djokovic.

Aussie Open Day 13: Stepanek and Paes wins doubles title over Bryan brothers

When your livelihood depends on traveling across the world, a little planning is important.  Bob Bryan, who got married somewhat recently, was expecting his first child.

The good news was that it wouldn’t exactly happen during the Australian Open.  The bad news is, the baby was expected to arrive the last day of the tournament.  Had they planned it out a touch better, they would have picked two weeks after the Australian Open.  Indeed, because of the baby’s due date, Bob Bryan decided not to play mixed doubles which he normally does because the finals are on Sunday.

With that in mind, the Bryan brothers headed to Australia to attempt their sixth title and their fourth consecutive.  This has been their best title by far.  You would think, with the amount of time the two have played with each other, they would be on their twentieth Slam by now, but they aren’t even close.  They have won 11 Slams even though doubles players can have careers that last 20 years.

The Australian Open has always been a good tournament because many doubles teams do not last, and when they break up, they break up at the end of the year.  Teams are often working out the kinks at the start of the year, and so they often don’t play their best, and that works to the Bryans benefit since they’ve been with each other for so long.

Such splits can be surprises.  Bopanna and Quereshi were the Indo-Pak Express who decided the novelty of a Hindu and Pakistani team could lead to opportunities off the court.  They were seen as humanitarians, and it seemed like the team was ready to have a long run as a duo.

But, national pressure can be strong. A year ago, Paes and Bhupathi decided to bury the hard feelings they had which caused their split many years ago.  Why bother?  The Olympics.  And yet, even these two chose to split up.  Feuds, it seems, are thicker than national loyalty.  And with this breakup, Bhupathi (one imagines) wooed Bopanna to split with Quereshi, perhaps convincing him how much an Olympic medal would mean and how he would not win one with Quereshi, since Quereshi represented a different country.  With Bhupathi gone, Paes decided to team with Radek Stepanek.

Despite this team being only paired together, doubles teams often adjust reasonably well.  There’s mostly one style of doubles (serve and volley), and an experience doubles players knows how to work with someone else.  Indeed, many singles players have had experience playing doubles, and fare all right (Nadal has won a few doubles titles with Marc Lopez, for example).

During the post-match interview, the Bryans were asked how it felt to play a singles guy like Stepanek that is now dabbling in doubles.  Of course, tennis fans–and the Bryan brothers–know that Stepanek, like Sam Stosur, started off as a doubles specialist, and then found success in singles, and now does a bit of both.  They reminded the reporter that Stepanek of this fact, and they knew him from way back when.

The match was apparently pretty close for the first set, but Paes-Stepanek took the tiebreak rather handily, and got out to an early break in the second set, and with the momentum, eventually took the matchm 76 62.

The Bryans said Leander Paes took something off his serve and spun it out wide, and they didn’t quite adjust to this.  It’s possible that Bob had other things on his mind, too.

With this loss, Bob heads back to the US to be with his wife and see the birth of their child.  Meanwhile, Mike Bryan, who is making wedding plans as well, will head to Switzerland to play Davis Cup.  It’s unclear who Mike Bryan will play with, as Fish, Isner, and Harrison have all played doubles.  The Davis Cup team has a huge burden ahead of them.  With Roger Federer expected to play Davis Cup, the team would do well regardless of surface.  However, Switzerland has picked indoor clay.

Federer can pretty much play all surfaces, but the surface was picked because it’s Wawrinka’s best surface, and not coincidentally, no American plan plays well on clay.  Americans are lucky if a single player can reach the fourth round of the French.  It’s a far cry from the days that Agassi, Courier, and Chang reached the finals on multiple occasions.  The indoor conditions are likely to help Federer who prefers pristine conditions with no wind or sun or heat, though he plays fine under such circumstances.

It will be tough for any of the players to beat the Swiss.  They’ll have to beat Wawrinka twice, which is tough, but at least not David Ferrer tough.  And they have to win doubles.  Federer and Wawrinka will be paired together, but the Americans have a reasonable shot.  Federer will likely win both singles.  It would be a major upset otherwise.  The only issue for Federer might be the change of surface.  Many players find the change from one surface to another a big adjustment and potentially leading to injury.

The Changing Game of Andy Murray

Andy Murray has been called a counterpuncher, but he’s not exactly a counterpuncher in the classic way.  Back when Andy Murray was rising in the ranks, he relied more on change of spins and pace and finesse drop shots to win matches.  Murray’s big strength then as it is now is his tremendous speed and anticipation as well as his return of serve.

Back in 2008, Murray was unusual.  Most male players grow up playing a machismo style.  They want to hit as hard as they can.  They crave power.  They don’t mind that power leads to errors.  You can see this style in players like Verdasco or Gonzalez or James Blake.  They win because they hit hard.  Even standard baseliners of today, Wawrinka, Tipsarevic, Almagro hit the ball pretty hard without necessarily going for winners.  David Ferrer hits pretty hard, but doesn’t go for winners partly because he doesn’t seem to generate that kind of power or because he doesn’t want to.

Compared to all these players, Murray used to hit somewhat softer than any of them.  This meant Murray’s opponents could tee off on his shots a little more easily.  Murray didn’t mind.  He was fast.  Indeed, it seemed like he wanted his opponents to attack him.  Murray, in those days, stood way back, 6-10 feet behind the baseline, and this strategy of not hitting hard and allowing his opponents to strike first was part of the Venus fly trap.  Come into my parlor, said the spider to the fly.  And if they attacked the net, Murray would rush to the ball, hit a great pass, and he’d win the point.

Sometimes he’d vary up the pace.  Slice, slice, topspin, etc.  All this change of pace would disrupt the timing of some players, and they would mishit the shot.

However, these tactics never seemed to work against the very best.  It’s really, really hard to throw Nadal’s timing off.  Nadal can hit balls that barely come off the ground with equal ease as balls bouncing ten feet high with severe topspin.  Some of that was Uncle Toni’s desire to get Nadal to win Wimbledon.  If low balls were a liability, then he’d be sliced and diced.  Indeed, Roger Federer must lament the fact that Nadal can handle such low shots.  Early commentators wondered how a clay court player could do so well at Wimbledon, never realizing that he was trained to hit such low shots.

And although Murray is as quick as they come, it’s still hard to run against the hardest hitters in the game.  Nadal could take any shot up the middle and hit it hard to one sideline or another creating angles that no one had seen before.  And once he pulled you off to that corner, Nadal would pull you off to the other corner.  At some point, you’d be barely reaching the ball, still trying to get some pace, land it in the center, and he’d whip a winner.

Today, the successor to Murray is Bernard Tomic who hits even softer and relies on slice on both forehand and backhand.  Where Tomic is different is his ability to hit hard flat shots to the corners.  Most top pros get a little scared going for the lines.  If they aren’t scared, then they are reckless and miss too often.  You often see pros hit 5-10 feet from the lines.  As a fan, perhaps you yell “hit closer to the lines”.  In that case, watch women’s tennis.  They aim for the lines a lot.  And they miss a lot too, but when they make it, no woman is fast enough to chase it down.

In the calculus of women’s tennis strategy, going for a winner is a viable strategy.  Women barely bother to slice.  They hit one good shot to the corner and no woman can chase it down.  In the men’s game, players like Rafa and Roger and Novak and Andy can chase it down.  Rafa won championships because he could take 5 huge shots in a row–and those are being hit by men, not women, get to them, and loop up another shot.  Soderling and Berdych only wish their power was so great that Nadal would miss every one of them, but he doesn’t.  Perhaps only del Potro hits so hard that Nadal doesn’t get to those shots, but del Potro is smart enough and skillful enough to play steady ball.  del Potro is highly underrated for his ability to play lots and lots of balls.

But Tomic has learned to work the corners.  Federer has always gone for big shots to the sidelines and Nadal is amazing as well.  For as much praise as Tomic gets about his game, he’ll learn, as Andy Murray learn, that it’s not enough.  Tomic wants to believe that against him, you’ll make silly mistakes, like Fernando Verdasco made silly mistakes.  That you can be lulled by the slice shots and that it will throw off your rhythm. and that you’ll be forced to play Tomic’s game.  He’s a pro-level pusher.

Federer, apparently, was lulled into this strategy against Tomic in Davis Cup, and swore that he would not be lulled if they met again.  And when they did meet again, Federer went for the lines, forcing Tomic to have to run, his one great weakness.  Tomic had to abandon his push, push, push strategy and try to hit with Federer, and that’s where Tomic still needs work.  Tomic is a flat hitter (which, by today’s standards, just means a low arcing topspin player) and can be prone to errors for that reason.

Murray learned this lesson years ago.  To play someone like Nadal, Murray created a special Nadal strategy.  You can’t push, push, push against Nadal because Nadal isn’t bothered by lack of pace, by low shots or hard shots.  The only thing that bothers him is pace, and then, only sometimes.  His early strategy was to hit a short crosscourt forehand that would land in the service box to Nadal’s backhand.  Nadal loves to hit with forehand.  He will jump 10 feet wide of the doubles alley to hit a forehand.  In his mind, the difference between a backhand and forehand is maybe 10 feet in position.  When he has to run 40 feet or more, that extra 10 feet, on slow shots, is no big deal.  If he can run around a backhand on a serve, he has time do it off groundstrokes.  This short forehand was a way to keep shots to the Nadal backhand.

Nadal’s backhand is, by no means, weak.  Nadal can hit amazing passes off that backhand.  But in backcourt exchanges, Nadal can’t get the same kind of variety and pop as he does with his forehand.  Nadal is almost always hitting a backhand from the backhand corner, so his shots invariably go crosscourt or down the line and occasionally up the middle.  He never has to hit that backhand inside-out.  The variety and pace are all on his forehand.  Opponents therefore try to get to Rafa’s backhand.

Rafa doesn’t make it easy.  Because he’s so quick, he camps to his backhand corner to get as many forehands as possible.  However, this leaves open his forehand corner.  If Rafa leaves a shot up the middle, it can be attacked inside out to his forehand.  In the old days, Rafa was particularly vulnerable to this shot.  If you hit the shot hard enough, but he could still reach the ball, he would spray that forehand.

Andy Murray used this tactic a lot in the semis against Rafael Nadal and won the match in four sets.

However, despite a strategy that seemed to work against Rafa, Murray never much used this strategy against anyone else.  He’d go back to his normal strategy of hitting shots from way behind the baseline, and slicing and dicing.  Part of that may be Murray’s mentality.  He sees himself as a defensive player.   The weird part is that he’s not classic in defense.  If you’re going to play defense, you should be a heavy topspin player and you should use that topspin to give yourself more margin.  Of the top four, Murray hits the least topspin.

Murray began adding a bit more aggression to his game when he realized that his style of play wasn’t beating Federer at the Slams, and of course, that he couldn’t beat Rafa often enough.

In 2010, Murray played Toronto and, in succession, beat a hot David Nalbandian (the last time Nalbandian was playing really good, and it only lasted maybe 6 weeks), Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer.  He did it by striking the ball pretty hard.  Pundits were happy he finally did this, but again, he reverted back to his old style.

Now, Murray has been developing his power shots throughout 2010 and 2011.  In particular, Murray altered his forehand motion and was learning to hit a putaway forehand.  Against Nadal, Murray really poured on the power on his backhand.  Perhaps this was motivated by the fact that Nadal, while being a beast on the baseline, tends to arc his shots when he’s not attacking and that arc leaves the ball high enough that Murray has learned to lean into this shot and basically “hit down”, hard and flat and crosscourt.  Most players don’t arc it high enough for Murray to do this.

Djokovic has generally had better luck on tour because Djokovic can play on clay.  Why?  Djokovic spins the ball more.  But more importantly, Djokovic loves hitting down-the-line.  He has great confidence off both wings to hit these shots.  Djokovic’s sudden rising came from being able to hit an amazing sharp crosscourt forehand, a stroke he used to confound Federer in 2011 when Federer would hit a hard crosscourt to Djokovic’s forehand only to see the ball come back faster and with angle.

Murray, by contrast, lacks confident in the down-the-line shot, especially off his forehand, but even off his backhand.  Murray is confident in the crosscourt forehand and backhand which he can now hit quite hard but without the threat of a reliable down the line shot, Murray’s opponents know to cover crosscourt.   This is one area where he’s quite different from Lendl.  Lendl loved the down-the-line shot.  In Lendl’s day, if you were drawn out wide to the forehand, you went down the line.  In today’s game, you go back crosscourt hard.  It’s a safer shot.  Bernard Tomic, for example, hits hard, down-the-line if pulled out wide, and that surprises his opponents.

If Murray needs to learn something technical or mental, it’s to fall in love with the down-the-line forehand.  It’s a tough shot to hit, to be sure.  And, at times, you see Murray hitting this shot, but it just depends on his confidence.  In the match against Harrison, Murray appeared to be doing a back and forth drill.  Forehand crosscourt, forehand down-the-line, etc.  He abandoned it as he got deeper in the tournament, but it may be something he’s working on.

Against Djokovic, Murray opted to play more offensive, get closer to the baseline.  And, at times, it worked well.  He made a lot more errors, that’s for sure.  Essentially, Murray wanted to play Djokovic a bit more like Nadal.  Djokovic, when all is said and done, is a bit like Nadal.  He wants long rallies.  He hits hard enough to make it hard for you to attack him.  He covers the baseline well so it’s hard to hit anywhere that Djokovic can’t get to and can’t hit back hard from that position.  He’s a very precise hitter than hits to all corners.

When Murray and Djokovic got into forehand exchanges at the Australian Open semis, Djokovic would eventually try to open the court with a sharp angle forehand.  He wasn’t afraid to hit that shot.  Murray would be pulled wide and want to hit a sharp forehand.  Murray kept hooking this shot into the net.   He basically never went down the line with this shot.

The one interesting aspect about how Murray played this tournament was his aggression on return.  Murray is one of the best returners in the game, but this tournament, more than any other, Murray was getting numerous break changes.  However, he was having a hard time getting the breaks, even with 15-40 and sometimes 0-40 leads.  If he could have broken any time he had this lead, he would have won his quarterfinal match easily and certainly dismissed Djokovic.  I believe Murray is now working on his return game and wants to be a threat to break every game.  It somewhat offsets the fact that Murray still struggles on serve.

Murray now has a big first serve, but he can’t get it in at will, and often, he struggles at 40%.  He’s taller than Roddick, and despite a rather nice motion, he seems unable to reliably hit it at 60%.  If he had a high first serve percentage, he’d likely have won a Slam by now, or at least, a lot more titles.

Murray should have been concerned that one improvement Djokovic has made is a huge second serve.  It didn’t seem to affect Murray a ton.  Murray still got a lot of Djokovic’s second serves back even when Djokovic was popping it at 110 mph, but it’s awfully impressive that Djokovic could improve his second serve that much.

For all of Murray’s improvements on technical aspects of his game, perhaps it’s the mental part that’s slowly coming along.  In the past, maybe Murray would have crumbled after falling a break back in the second set, but he kept fighting, kept in the match.  Pundits make too much of how often Murray complains to the box.  Murray plays maybe 80 matches a year, and it happens maybe 4 matches.  But it’s always on the biggest stages, and fans notoriously just pay attention to the biggest matches and draw erroneous conclusions.

Where do I see Murray heading.  For sure, he’s got to learn the down-the-line shot.  He needs to be able to pull the trigger comfortably.  This is the biggest difference between Djokovic and Murray.  It would help if Murray’s shots weren’t nearly so risky, but he’ll probably always play a bi flatter than the other pros, and thus be prone to this kind of error.  Next, he has to figure out something about his serve.  Right now, it doesn’t hurt him much.  For all of Nadal’s power, he rarely tries to hit winners on return of serve, so a spinny short second serve almost never hurts Murray.  Indeed, even with a 40% first serve, Murray still tends to hold serve.

One plus of Murray learning to hit harder is that he’ll need to rely on this when he gets older.  There is a reason why Agassi and Connors lasted so long on the tour.  They were among the hardest hitters in the game when they were in their prime.  As they got older, they got slower, though neither Agassi or Connors was exactly blessed with huge speed.  Players like Chang incurred injuries and just played much worse as the got older.  Speed demons begin to fade and not have enough to rely on.   The only plus is today’s best players seem to take care of themselves better than ever.  However, today’s best players rely on speed.  One reason Karlovic has lasted as long as he has is because he relies on his serve.  He’s a slow guy, but he has enough weapons to cover up that problem, and so he can play top 50 tennis even as he’s older than the typical player.

In the past, I thought Andy’s game did have enough limitations to give him problems winning Slams.  You don’t want to win a Slam where you have to zone to win.  You want to win because you’re playing very good, not your absolute best.  If you have to rely on absolute best, then it relies on the best of timing.  It’s much better to be like Steffi Graf who could win a Slam even if she were playing at 80%.  Andy had to rely on playing his best, and even then, Federer could often outhit him, Nadal was steadier and less prone to dips in his game, and so forth.  Where Andy struggled is that sometimes his level dipped more than it should against quality opponents.

These days, I think with a few more tweaks, his average good game should be competitive with the best of them.  Yes, I think Nadal is still probably steadier and can withstand more, so Murray will still need to figure that out.  And there’s still del Potro trying to get his game back to where he wants it.  I think that’s maybe 6 months away, which would be about the US Open.  But Murray is making progress.

Aussie Open Day 12 (SF): Djokovic edges Murray in five set marathon and plays Nadal for the title

Rafael Nadal must be so thrilled.

He had come off a tough four set challenge from the Swiss maestro who, once again, could not figure out a way to beat the beast of Mallorca.  They say, in football, a good defense wins championships, and Rafa showed, if you can chase enough would-be winners, your opponent is going to make an error.

This was a long match, but aren’t they all long for Rafa?  Rafa is about the only player who can play two sets 61 61 and still require two hours to accomplish the feat.  Rafa doesn’t know quick play.

So he had to be happy when his big rival, Novak Djokovic, the Serb that has gotten into the his head had to spend nearly five hours on court for a victory against the once hapless, Andy Murray.

Not that this would be a wise feeling, and not that Rafa is so immodest or so naive to believe Djokovic couldn’t come back.  After all, wasn’t it Djokovic who needed five sets to beat Roger Federer at the US Open last year before beating Rafa in four sets in the final?  Wasn’t it the same Serb that had a gruelling three set match in Rome against the same Andy Murray and waltzed into the finals with a straight set win.  Perhaps it’s a dried plum eaten under the cloak of a towel that provides Samson-like strength to the world number one?

Rafa only need look in the mirror to find someone who had to weather such a storm.  Three years ago, Rafa found himself battling his own countryman, Fernando Verdasco, in a semifinal tussle for the ages.  Verdasco, incidentally, had himself come off a five setter in the quarterfinals against whom?  Yes, Andy Murray.  Murray had been sick that Australian Open, but mustered the will to push Fernando five sets before succumbing.  Everyone felt that Rafa could not possibly recover with one day off and give Federer a challenge.  Not that Roger would try to slow ball the match and make Rafa run.  Roger knows only one way to play, and that’s quick, and he alters this strategy for almost no one.

Rafa won this marathon in five sets as Roger, who clawed his way to a four set win, found himself unable to hit the ball in the court and surrendered an early break.  Maybe tears weren’t shed then, but on the inside, Roger must have despaired.  To play so well to take the fourth set, and then to yield a break so soon?  And before he knew it, another break.   And then the tears flowed for real.  Don’t feel bad Roger, that year was nearly one of your best.  Had del Potro not threaded the needle twice as you serving for the second set at Flushing Meadows, 2009 would have gone down as one of your most awesome years.

But, back to the match which was so much less about Rafa and Novak then it was about Andy Murray.

In early 2008, Andy Murray had been with a new coach, Miles Maclagan, and was finally addressing the one issue that his critics complained about most.  His fitness.  Murray was certainly talented enough to win or contend for matches against the best player.  He took Rafa to five sets in Australia as a young lad.  But the Scot was known to fade, his fitness faltering in the wee hours of a set, and with it the hopes of a nation so desperate for a winner that it would embrace a Scot.  Murray entered the Australian Open hoping to make good on this new partnership only to be surprised by a player ranked in the 40s who was destined for his own greatness: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

That innocuous first-round upset lead to win after win, until the Frenchman met the Spaniard in the semifinal.  How rare that defeat of Rafa was!  Tsonga charged the net to deft drop volleys.  He challenged the Mallorcan from the baseline.  How did he do this?  It was nearly as magical as Rafa’s own breakout party, a straight set win over the world number one in 2005 Miami.

Tsonga was stopped from his goals by Novak Djokovic who found ways to beat a mono-stricken Roger Federer in the semifinals.  Djokovic hoisted the trophy of champion above his head.  Surely, the Serb must have imagined hoisting many more.  Little did he realize he would have to toil three more years, though ups and downs, through retirements from Slams and a year of more double faults than aces, before he could reclaim the title again, and surpass that with the best year of his life.

But, Andy Murray.

Andy Murray would take a serious step to his goals in 2008.  Hiring a team that worried about strategy and fitness, Murray would give his team hope in Wimbledon 2008 when, in the fourth round, he faced a player that had troubles him before.  Richard Gasquet.  Murray clawed his way to a five set victory, and flexed a bicep, an audacious display.  He would reach the semis and lose to Rafael Nadal, the first of many such experiences.  Murray would then lose early in the Olympics to then unheralded Yen-Hsun Lu, he of Taiwan, but then of Chinese Taipei to placate the mainland who mince such political niceties in true Orwellian fashion.

Murray’s loss meant better prep for the event in New York.  And the Olympic travails of the best players in the world meant Rafa was worn out, once again, heading into New York.  At the time, the spectacular Spaniard was only good for half a year.  He played amazing until Wimbledon, then his game or body wound down and he was vulnerable the rest of the year, assuming he could actually finish it.  Indeed, he had never so much as reached a US Open semi until 2008.  And that was when Murray put on the performance of his career, and toppled the Spaniard in a match that crossed two days.  But Murray was only good enough to beat one champion that tournament, not two, and Federer, who had had an off-year by his lofty standards, held the trophy up high on that Monday.

Since that day, Murray made it to the finals of a Slam twice more, once in 2010 when Roger Federer again dispatched him in three sets, and once again a year later, when the super Serb, Novak Djokovic, bounced him similarly.

And here it was, a year later, and Murray hoping to reach the finals once again.

The start was hardly audacious.  All the demons that surfaced in the years before at the biggest stages seemed to come again.  Even the mighty Ivan Lendl, hired to provide the resolve to the hapless Scot seemed to fade as Murray spewed errors against Djokovic and Djokovic, unexpectedly popped in second serves that looked like first serves.  And the first set was gone 63.  Oh Andy, why can’t you play your best?  Must you choke on the biggest stages?

Djokovic wasn’t playing his best by any means, but his level didn’t dip as much.  With a break in the second set and a chance to break again, the new Andy Murray looked like warmed over old Andy Murray.  And then Murray held off ignominy for one more moment and held his own serve.  Then, began a series of breaks.  Murray broke back!  Murray had been having good luck with this.  Against Nishikori, Murray should have had a trouncing.  He had tons of break opportunities, but his opponent dug out of deep holes to hold serve, despite chances and chances and chances.  At the time, this was attributed to Nishikori’s fatigue and that fatigue contributing to easy chances by Murray to break.

But Murray is a bit underrated as a returner.  Yes, he possesses a great return, but enough to have break opportunities even against the best?  Like he did against Nishikori, Murray had ample opportunities to break.  Had he closed out on all the opportunities presented, he would be the one facing Rafa.  But Djokovic would also earn back those points and hold when Murray should have broken.

Murray would break again and take the second set 63.  Ah, there is fight left.

And the third set would see Murray break for a lead only to surrender the lead.  Off to tiebreak and Murray would have a minibreak and yield a minibreak, before securing two points on Djokovic’s serve and riding to a 7-4 win in the tiebreak.

Murray’s new guru, Ivan Lendl, had told him before the match, that he would feel pain before victory.  That no matter how hunched over his opponent may be, no matter how labored his breathing, Djokovic would still run.  Murray heeded that warning.  He ran around the Serb and watched him bend over, and Murray continued to fight the good fight.  But not only was Djokovic’s fitness being tested, so was his.

When that third set concluded, Murray yielded a break immediately, then another.  Two breaks down and Murray finally held serve.  He had chances to break which might have at least stemmed the flow of defeat, but Djokovic held.  And then Murray, realizing that it would take too much energy to claim the fourth with chances very good he’d play a fifth anyway, yielded the fourth quickly.  Alas, he didn’t even bother to hold his own serve.

The two fought, but Murray found himself a break down, 52.  Murray held, then broke Djokovic at love, and held again to 5-all and the momentum, as well as crowd support, fell Murray’s way.  Murray wanted another break, the rush of adrenaline from being so close to his dreams pushing him forward.  Murray would get to break points only to see the Serb, who wasn’t ready to yield despite being pushed all over, thread a down-the-line shot for a winner.  Djokovic would hold serve, then Murray would find himself 15-40 down and then yield to the world number one.

But this time, critics who booed his inability to push his opponents would say that Murray had made a step forward, that he would fight more than himself.

And Djokovic would escape this one, and wonder if he could do as he did before against Nadal, as Nadal did once against Roger Federer.  Could he recover in time to play his great nemesis once again,  Or would the Spaniard, after being foiled for all of 2011, finally exorcise his own demons?

The answer–in a day.

Aussie Open Day 11 (SF): Nadal beats Federer in four, reaches final for second time

As usual, Federer looked sharp out of the gate, but Nadal again caught up before Federer could close out the set and feel good about it.  Federer took a 3-0 lead and looked sharp, hardly missing any serves, but as soon as Nadal began holding serve, Federer’s sharp play started showing edges.  Shots that were landing in were falling.  Shots that Nadal wasn’t reaching were being reached.  Serves that couldn’t miss began to miss.

It’s so hard to play Nadal when you must hit great shot after great shot and he is content moving the ball around and waiting for his opportunities.  Nadal’s defense has won him a lot of matches against Federer. As much as Federer has improved his backhand, it’s still not the weapon his forehand is, and Nadal still gets many of these shots back.

Despite the break back game, Federer was able to hold serve and push the match into a tiebreak. In the tiebreak, get a one point minibreak and ride that to the set win.  That first set win was more critical to Federer than Nadal who often plays better as the match goes longer.

Indeed, Federer looked encouraged by the first set win.  In the second set, Federer started off with an immediate break, but was immediately broken back, and then lost serve twice more.  The third set had Federer breaking, but Nadal breaking back.  This set also went to tiebreak where Nadal took a 6-1 lead before Federer came back to 6-5 until Nadal finally won one more point to take the third set.

In the fourth set, Nadal again secured a break.  While serving for it 5-4, Nadal got down break point twice.  In one break point, Federer appeared to approach on an excellent shot to get the break, but Nadal tossed the lob up which hit deep near the baseline.  Federer then hit a slice which landed wide, and eventually on his last match point, Roger took an aggressive forehand crosscourt that landed a touch deep.

Federer seemed a bit forlorn after the match ended.  After playing so well to reach the semifinals and having his chances to break open each of the sets, Federer has to feel frustrated that as well as he hit, he can’t string just enough points together.  In the end, Federer seems to win his matches by winning a few key points and weathering the storm (the occasionally lop-sided win aside), but in his losses, he just can’t get over the hump.  Nadal always has the answers.  Federer can’t get enough returns in play, or when he plays aggressive, he can’t hit it just a fraction faster, or Nadal doesn’t miss it just a few inches longer.  That’s all Roger needs, and in the end, he never gets it.

And so Nadal goes to the final feeling good about his chances.  If Djokovic truly is hurt, then Nadal will have an advantage.  He’ll still have the edge over Andy Murray who he met in three Slams last year and won all three encounters.  If Djokovic is healthy and wins, then maybe he has a long final ahead of him.  The only plus is he gets one additional day of rest which Djokovic won’t have (who gets one day while Rafa would get two).  In the meanwhile, Nadal will relish his opportunity to win his 11th Slam and close in on Roger’s record.

Aussie Open: The Big Four reach the final four

If I were asked to rank how the players played in their quarterfinal matches, hmm, I think I would go in this order.

1. Roger Federer

In his win over Juan Martin del Potro, Federer moved as well as I’ve seen in a while, and was pulling out magic tricks.  It’s hard to evaluate this win because I feel del Potro is not quite there yet.  Until he starts beating the top four, I’m not convinced he’s back to where he was in 2009 where he beat Nadal twice and Federer twice.  Intriguingly, Djokovic and Murray have had good lick beating the tall Argentine.

Even so, del Potro is surely a solid, say, number 6, in the mix with players like Berdych and Tsonga.  Plus, Federer has had a huge win streak, though he’s only beaten one player in the top four, which is Rafael Nadal at the year-end championship.  He didn’t meet Djokovic or Murray during his win streak.

2. Novak Djokovic

This is a tough call.  David Ferrer is not nearly as dangerous as, say, Tomas Berdych, but he is relentless.  Watching this match showed how much focus Djokovic has.  When dealing with the pressure that Ferrer can exert, Djokovic can direct the ball so precisely, either down the line or out wide, and do it time and again.  Given how steady and dogged Ferrer is, Djokovic just withstands what Ferrer has to offer, and pressures Ferrer back.

The one concern is Djokovic’s health.  How is his hamstring?  How is his breathing?  Did Ferrer inflict a wound on Djokovic like he may have against Murray in the semifinal meeting last year?  Djokovic says he’s fine.  Is he?

3. Rafael Nadal

I think Rafa’s performance was similar to Djokovic.  He played a guy with a big serve, hitting the ball big and well, and had to fend off Berdych’s aggressive groundstrokes.  Berdych won a close tiebreak, then lost a close tiebreak, until Nadal just outlasted the tall Czech.  Berdych looked good in his loss.  He hits harder than Federer, almost a Soderling-style player, and yet Federer has found ways to beat him, occasionally.

4. Andy Murray

Murray probably had the easiest match in the quarterfinals, but he also had the weakest opponent.  Nishikori is an up-and-comer, but he played two five setters and a close four setter in last three rounds, and also had to team up to play mixed doubles.  Murray didn’t serve well, and it felt like he leaned on his crosscourt shots, unable to pull the trigger down the line.

Tonight: Federer vs. Nadal

Despite looking in great form, Federer doesn’t seem like he’s nearly as ready as Nadal.  If Federer is going to win, his serve is critical.  Nadal fended off a power player by getting tough shot after tough shot back and eventually winning the match.  I don’t feel del Potro challenged Federer as much as Berdych challenged Nadal, and despite his barrage of hard shots from Berdych, Nadal got through.

If Federer can serve well and throw Nadal off because of it, then maybe he’ll win, but I slightly favor Nadal.  Federer can win if he avoids silly errors, and Nadal is a bit off his game.

Aussie Open Day 10 (QF): Djokovic beats Ferrer to head into top four semi showdown

How does it feel to be David Ferrer?  He is a most worthy top 5.  He pretty much beats everyone ranked below him.  He might struggle against a Berdych or Tsonga, but pretty much everyone below that, he does well.  Ferrer made Nadal’s life a lot easier by being his Davis Cup teammate.  Nadal is often guaranteed his two wins, but Ferrer is often up to the task of winning his two matches.  Argentina needed del Potro to beat Ferrer if they had half a chance of claiming the Davis Cup, but it came down to Ferrer beating del Potro to make the job that much easier for Nadal.

Despite being known as a bulldog, a guy who makes you work for every point, who rarely plays poorly, he just seems out of his league against the players ranked above him.  Oh sure, if they have an off-day, as Djokovic and Nadal have had, then he gets his wins, but if they’re playing well, Ferrer is a decided underdog.

Djokovic, for example, serves better than Ferrer, moves a bit better than Ferrer, hits more precisely than Ferrer, hit harder than Ferrer.  And yet, Ferrer, like Hewitt, made Djokovic work for his straight set victory.  Ferrer nearly got broken early on, but plugged away to get early holds before finally yielding his serve, and losing the first set, 6-4.  Ferrer even got ahead in the second and in the tiebreak, but was unable to hold off Djokovic.  When Ferrer failed to win the second set, Djokovic cruised to a 6-1 third set, but until then, he labored with a hamstring pull and difficulties breathing.  Despite these issues, Djokovic proclaimed himself fit and ready to play the semifinals.

And that means the top four have reached the final four again.  The top four met in the US Open in the semis as well as the French Open, and three of the top four reached the semis at last year’s Australian and Wimbledon.

Tonight, Roger Federer takes on his rival, Rafael Nadal in the semis.

Aussie Open Day 10 (QF): Murray rolls past Nishikori and heads to semi

A week and a half ago, the draw didn’t look so friendly to Andy Murray.  He was expected to play a series of Frenchman for four rounds.  He played Roger-Vasselin in the second round and Michael Llodra in the third round.  The expected player was Gael Monfils in the fourth round, but due to an injury of sorts, Monfils struggled against Mikhail Kukushkin in two sets, then managed to muster enough energy and movement to take two more sets, before losing a critical serve when someone from the crowd tossed an oversized ball during the middle of a point.  The match so wearied Kukushkin that he had to withdraw after two lackluster sets.

The danger player would have been Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  To be fair, Murray actually has an excellent record against the French, but Tsonga would still have been a tougher opponent.  But Tsonga didn’t win.  In the heat, his game went awry as he kept spraying balls a bit long or a bit wide.  He started off fine, winning the first set handily, but then dropping sets 2 and 3 before pulling his game together in sets 4.  Nishikori, however, was the one with the early break in the fifth, and pretty much opted to hold serve and not contest Tsonga’s serve.

Like Kukushkin, Nishikori had played a lot of long matches, and the worry was whether he could play a decent match.  He had one positive.  The weather was going to be cool, not the heatwave of the past two days.

The match was a bit weird.  Andy Murray served poorly, but got to an early break.  While players like Federer pride themselves on how often they hold serve and how few break points they face, Murray prides himself in giving himself break opportunities.  Murray did not look nearly as sharp as he did in previous rounds.  He leaned on his favorite shots: crosscourt forehands and backhands, preferring long backhand exchanges, trying to avoid leaving shots up the middle where Nishikori would hit hard shots to one corner or the other.  Nishikori, for his part, didn’t look too bad.  He was able to play a long rally against Murray where both players were hitting hard.  Lasting over 40 shots, the rally went Murray’s way when Nishikori got off balance and Murray sliced the ball up the line for the win.

Murray found himself in trouble on his own serve quite a bit, but kept digging out of the messes and holding serve.  Conversely, he also found himself getting numerous break points against Nishikori, but unable to close out the break game.  He was always ahead, but could have broken the set wide open in either of the first two sets.  Murray took sets 1 and 2 by the identical score of 6-3.  By the third set, he had run Nishikori around so much that Nishikori was struggling and dropped the set 6-1.

Murray had been working on hitting down the line, but seemed uncomfortable hitting that shot throughout the match, preferring crosscourt shots most of the times.  His serve percentage was particularly low, under 50% most of the times, but despite all that, Nishikori was unable to take full advantage, partly because he was fatigued from previous matches.

Murray admitted as much afterwards.  If he’s going to beat Ferrer or Djokovic, he needs to serve a lot better.  He blamed the wind for making it challenging to serve.  Of the three semifinalists, Murray has looked the weakest, despite the win.  It would have been a different story if he could have consolidate his break chances.  The good news was increased aggression in the second set where he seemed a bit more defensive/cautious in the first set, playing more like he normally does.

The one plus, Murray admitted, was short matches through all his matches.  This was a goal he and Lendl set for the Australian.  Keep matches short and conserve energy for the semis/finals.  Since Murray is going to plays either Djokovic or Ferrer who are likely to play him in a long match, the lack of hours on court are going to help him.  Chris Fowler of ESPN speculated that maybe Ferrer would upset Djokovic given Murray’s luck with the draw breaking his way.  Of course, that would be tough to do in the finals given it’s going to be either Federer or Nadal.

Aussie Open Day 9 (QF): Federer and Nadal to meet in the semifinals

Juan Martin del Potro had it all.  He beat Nadal in three easy sets in 2009 in the US Open semifinals.  Then, he took down Federer in five sets in the finals to be the only player outside of Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer to win a Slam since 2005.  Six years of Slams have only yielded four champions: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and del Potro.

del Potro was the kind of player that might have taken over number one.  He had a big enough serve to win free points, and big enough groundstrokes to pummel nearly everyone.

But his good fortune hit a snag when he injured his wrist and needed surgery.  He played the Australian Open in 2010, then pretty much had to tend to his wrist.  He pretty much shut down for 2010.  He played two tournaments after the US Open, but early losses convinced him to shut it down for the rest of 2010.  2011 was a year for del Potro to come back, and he slowly came back, winning titles and his ranking steadily rose so that, by the end of the year, he was ranked 11, and was making plans to get back into the top ten.

By the Australian Open, Juan Martin del Potro had declared himself nearly ready to get back to the top.  Despite a small hiccup from the aggressive Mannarino in the first set, del Potro had a pretty easy march to the quarterfinals, winning in straight sets.  But was he ready to beat Roger Federer.  Federer looked awfully sharp beating Tomic, but Tomic’s weird slow-down style is meant to disrupt the rhythm of his opponents.  Federer would have none of that.  When Tomic started hitting hard and flat, Federer was more than ready to the task

del Potro is in a different category than Tomic.  He’s very steady, and has the kind of firepower that makes most players shudder in awe.  But, despite being awfully mobile for a guy his height, he’s still not as mobile as the top four.

Federer’s basic tactic appeared to be to hit mostly to the del Potro backhand.  He started off the first set very quickly with a break lead, but then played a bad game where he hit the ball just long or just in the net, and his game seemed off kilter.  However, he held it together to take the first set, 6-4.  With one set in the pocket, Federer began to relax.  He would take strokes and drive it down the line, or hit a drop shot, followed by a lob, or even slice slow shots up the middle in a strategy reminiscent of del Potro.  And Federer kept slicing that serve out wide, which really befuddled del Potro who struggled to reach the wide shots.  Once the second set was secured, Federer broke twice in the third and won 64 63 62.

Although Berdych’s refusal to shake hands with Almagro, Nadal’s mind was more on Berdych’s hitting.  Berdych hadn’t beaten Nadal in some 9 matches.  Berdych basically has one way to play Nadal.  Be aggressive.  The first set was tight with both players having chances to break, especially Nadal, but neither player able to do so.  The tiebreak was also pretty close and hinged on a challenge that Nadal failed to get off in time when he felt Berdych hit the ball deep (replays showed he did) and Berdych secured the first set tiebreak.

The second set was just as close with each player breaking once.  It, too, went to a tiebreak, but this time Nadal came out on top, 8-6.  Nadal then asserted himself in sets 3 and 4 and felt he played very high quality tennis to beat a big hitter like Berdych, 64 and 63.

Both players are playing very well, but I felt Berdych was more impressive pressuring Nadal and Nadal weathered the storm.  As good as Roger is playing, I wonder if he can handle Nadal.  The one hope is the long match affected Nadal, but four hours is still not that serious for Nadal.

Tonight, Andy Murray takes on Kei Nishikori who looked exhausted in his win over Tsonga.  The big question is can he recover?  The good news is the weather is not expected to be as hot as it was two days ago.  Even so, all those sets must be tiring, and so Murray has a solid edge.  In the other match, Novak Djokovic takes on David Ferrer.  Ferrer was beaten soundly by Djokovic at Abu Dhabi.  Can he do better?  Ferrer seems to have topped out.  Better than pretty much every player below him, but lacking enough firepower to bother the players above him.  Had Djokovic not had a letdown against Hewitt, he would have utterly dominated the Aussie, as he did in sets 1, 2, and 4.  Still, Ferrer is likely to pose more of a challenge to Djokovic than Nishikori to Murray because he’s higher ranked and healthier.

Still, we’re looking at the final four making the semis once again, at least, so it seems.